Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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503 FXUS61 KBTV 071730 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 130 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A closed upper low will bring showers to the region today, with some embedded thunderstorms possible. Unsettled and cooler weather continues through the weekend, with showers finally becoming less numerous early next week and a warming temperature trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the region this early afternoon, with the strongest cores located in the Champlain Valley and several reports of pea to dime/penny size hail in abundance. The forecast for the rest of the afternoon remains on track with this activity continuing to slowly drift eastward through VT with small hail and frequent lightning the main threats through sunset before storms diminish in coverage for the overnight hours. Quieter conditions with a few showers here and there is expected tonight, but additional diurnally driven showers are likely on Saturday. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Additional shortwave energy rounding base of upper level trough still over our region will bring more chances for showers on both Saturday night and Sunday. This far out it`s a bit difficult to time the shortwaves passing through, but don`t expect both of these periods to be total washouts. Models did trend wetter for Sunday though, so did bump up pops accordingly. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. These daytime highs are a bit cool for early June. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 408 AM EDT Friday...Weather will remain unsettled headed into the long term portion of the forecast. Chance of showers will continue for Sunday night and Monday with upper level trough finally pulling away from our region headed into Monday night. From Tuesday onward the GFS and ECMWF lack much continuity between the two models, leading to lower confidence in the forecast. GFS depicts another system impacting the north country on Wednesday while the ECMWF does not have this system at all. At this time looks like temperatures will trend back towards above normal levels towards the end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty in the extended, and I`m sure we`ll get a better idea as we head into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday... VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period with afternoon/evening thunderstorms providing brief periods of MVFR/IFR vsby. Overnight low clouds are possible at KMPV/KSLK/KMSS, but confidence is low on how low the ceilings are. MVFR is the forecast for now, but the potential exists for IFR, especially at KSLK. VFR and isolated to scattered showers return after sunrise Saturday. Winds will generally be SSW less than 10kts through the period, with local gusts up to 18kt at KBTV this afternoon and through the period at KSLK. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff