180
FXUS61 KBTV 141908
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
308 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change is anticipate in our weather for Sunday into early
this upcoming week. The dry conditions with above normal
temperatures prevail, along with patchy morning fog. Highs will
once again be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday
with lows in the upper 40s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 PM EDT Saturday...Surface analysis indicates a weak
back door frnt acrs central VT this aftn, which has interacted
with some sfc based instability to produce a few isolated
showers. These wl quickly dissipate by sunset with areas of fog
developing after midnight and prevailing into Sunday morning.
Sfc dwpts are another 1 to 3 degrees warmer this aftn, so once
again expecting widespread fog to develop, especially in climo
favored areas btwn 04-13z Sunday. Lows a bit warmer than the
previous couple of nights with values in the upper 40s SLK/NEK
to lower 60s CPV. For Sunday, weak boundary shifts into the
dacks, with weak instability and minor sfc convergence, could
produce an isolated shower again during the aftn hours. Progged
925mb temps change very little, so anticipate highs upper 70s to
mid 80s. Areas of valley fog and comfortable temps are
anticipated on Sunday night with lows in the lower 50s to lower
60s. Some elevated humidity values are possible in the valleys
near sunset with light trrn driven winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...An extensive area of high pressure will
be centered almost directly overhead, leading to another day of dry
weather. Dry profiles at all levels and subsidence from the high
should be enough to even prevent cumulus development in the
afternoon, so skies will be almost completely clear. Temperatures
will rise into the low-to mid 80s, and with 925 mb temperatures
around 20-22 degrees celsius, the upper 80s cannot be ruled out in
some of the warmer valleys. Patchy fog will develop in the
climatologically favored valleys Monday morning due to clear skies
and calm winds. There will also be some humidity, particularly in
the broad valleys, where the dew points will be in the low to mid
60s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...A rex block looks to prevail through this
period, with a weak storm containing some tropical characteristics
forming off the coast of the southeast, and an extensive area of
nearly-stationary high pressure centering over southern Canada and
the Northeast. The region will be under the influence of the high
and no meaningful rain is expected. Persistence is the theme of the
forecast, with minimal variability in the low and high temperatures.
However, with clear skies and light winds, there will be relatively
large diurnal ranges and patchy nighttime fog development.
Temperatures will be well above the climatological normals and there
will be a little bit of humidity, particularly in the broad valleys.
Next week, tropical moisture will slowly move up the Atlantic Coast
as the center of the high pushes off to the east. The operational
GFS and Canadian bring rain showers to the southern zones as early
as Wednesday afternoon, but ensemble probabilities of these areas
receiving measurable rainfall are less than 15 percent. They
increase to around 30 percent Thursday afternoon. The Euro keeps
this moisture completely to the south though. A backdoor cold front
will approach on Friday and it could bring a couple additional
showers, but overall, any rainfall looks to be inconsequential. To
reflect the uncertainty, have some slight chance PoPs for parts of
the region Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail thru 03z at all taf
sites with just a few to scattered fair wx cumulus clouds across
the higher terrain. The fog potential will be very similar to
last night and have utilized persistent for the development and
dissipation timing at our taf sites. Highest confidence near
100% probability of fog and IFR/LIFR is at SLK/MPV between 06-13
UTC, with likely fog 70% confidence at EFK. Similar to last
night, thinking intervals of fog is likely at PBG/MSS with
periods of IFR or lower possible between 04z and 12z. Given sfc
dwpts are another degree or two warmer today, another early
onset time of fog is possible and have utilized tempos to show
this potential btwn 02z-06z roughly. Have kept BTV and RUT VFR
thru the next 24 hours, but would not be surprised a brief
period of IFR fog develops around sunrise at BTV associated with
Winooski River Valley fog and light east winds. Otherwise,
light north/northeast winds become calm at sunset this evening
at most sites.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber