644
FXUS61 KBTV 211138
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside an isolated shower to two near the Adirondacks, dry
weather is expected today with partly cloudy skies and
temperatures in the 70s. Our dry pattern continues, but with
more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day
and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will
increase Monday evening into Tuesday as a weak low pressure
moves towards Lake Ontario with additional chances midweek when
that low pressure is replaced by another.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 732 AM EDT Saturday...A few showers wrapping around a
coastal low are approaching the Vermont-New Hampshire border.
Brought PoPs right up to the edge of slight chance thinking they
should largely dissipate, but there could be a few sprinkles
this morning along Caledonia and Orange Counties. Otherwise,
high clouds greatly inhibited fog in eastern Vermont, but New
York and parts of the Champlain Valley are once again quite
foggy, though not as pervasive as last night. The forecast is
overall in good shape with few adjustments needed. Previous
discussion below...

A few sprinkles are possible in the Adirondacks today as a weak
trough lingers in northern New York. Otherwise, quiet weather
with patchwork cloud cover will typify the day. Highs will reach
the 70s. It will be a real nice Saturday all in all! For
tonight, cool conditions in the mid 40s to mid 50s are expected
with more valley fog possible. Though it may not be as prevalent
in eastern Vermont with mid to high clouds. A few models are
trying to spit precipitation out across the Connecticut River
Valley towards dawn on Sunday. However, the lower levels of the
atmosphere appear quite dry, and largely think this will be
virga. During the day on Sunday, high pressure will build south,
extending into our area, with dry and cooler weather ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...We will finish up the weekend dry as we
remain under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high
pressure. However, rain chances will gradually increase from the
west as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes shifts eastward
toward Quebec. This feature will be proceeded by a weak disturbance
approaching ahead of the main upper low. This may be enough to spark
a few showers on Monday, mainly in northern NY as moisture will
become more limited as one heads into VT. Some of this shower
activity could make it into VT overnight Monday night, but chances
remain low at this time given lack of model agreement on eastward
extent of precipitation. Monday`s daytime highs will be seasonable
though a few degrees cooler than on Sunday, generally topping out in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows both Sunday and Monday nights will be
quite similar, with the St Lawrence and Champlain Valley remaining
in the 50s while the higher terrain and much of the rest of VT will
get down into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...Shower chances will increase as we head
into the middle of next week. WHile model consensus shows best
shower chances will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the low pressure to
our west pushes a frontal boundary across our region, there remains
considerable uncertainty as to exactly how the synoptic setup will
evolve with a large upper low potentially cutting off somewhere over
northern New England/Canadian Maritimes while a southern stream
system remains somewhere over the ArkLaTex or mid-Mississippi Valley
regions. So just about every period has at least a slight chance or
low chance of showers through the end of the week. Temperatures will
be cooler but seasonable, with highs in the 60s to around 70F and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Fog at varying magnitude is present across
KMSS, KSLK, and KPBG. Fog should lift by 13-14z. Clouds today
will generally remain at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be
south to southeast around 4 to 8 knots, except northeast at
KMSS, through about 00z and then trend light and variable. Some
fog could develop again over northern New York, but Vermont may
be dealing again with high clouds. For now indicated 2SM at KSLK
and 4SM at KMPV starting 06z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes