504
FXUS61 KBTV 200752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will bring a slim chance for some light rain
showers today. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading
into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to
lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night.
Chances for rain will increase for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...An upper level low is spinning in the Gulf
of Maine with attendant surface lows to its south and east. We are
on the subsident side of low pressure, but as high pressure builds
south of Newfoundland towards Quebec Province, a backdoor front will
slide southwest. It still appears that a few pinprick showers could
develop, with a focus better chances (we`re still talking just 20-30
percent) over Orange and Addison Counties in Vermont. Highs will
start to come down as cooler air begins to infiltrate. Anticipate
70s to near 80 today. Overnight lows should be cool, although there
are some competing factors like clouds, and a little bit of light
southeast flow that may hang on. Generally upper 40s to upper 50s
should be the norm. On Saturday, a little wrap around moisture from
coastal low pressure near the 40 N, 70 W benchmark may rotate into
southern Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks. Some slight chances
are shown during the day, but again, it`d amount to very little, if
any rain. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Ridging amplifies out of eastern Canada
Saturday night and Sunday eliminating shower chances. 925-850mb
remain cooler than recent conditions and combines with at least
partially cloudy skies supporting temperatures around seasonal
averages with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions are highly favored early
next week with high pressure remaining over the North Country. Model
consensus is increasingly consolidating on isolated to scattered
showers Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure is
expected to stall over the Great Lake region pushing a boundary into
northern New York. Ensembles and deterministic continue to coalesce
into a significant pattern shift mid week onward with the North
Country under a large area of surface confluence with low pressure
just west allowing for southerly flow to efficiently transport
moisture into the Northeast. Daily precipitation chances are favored
with temperatures ranging in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Models
diverge on timing of waves, but agree that at least scattered
showers are increasing in probability.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday... On top of fog formation, some low
stratus around 500-1100 ft agl have developed north of Route 11
and east of Lake Champlain, impacting KBTV and KMSS. Fog and low
stratus will diminish about 12z-13z. A backdoor front will
slide southwest around 15z-21z. A spot shower is possible, but
less than 20 percent probability of occurrence mostly over
Vermont terminals. There will be a preference for east to
northeast winds, but terrain upslope flow in the afternoon may
result in some variability in direction. Wind speeds will
generally be 4 to 8 knots, trending light and variable after 00z
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes