425
FXUS61 KBTV 211808
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside an isolated shower to two near the Adirondacks, dry
weather is expected today with partly cloudy skies and
temperatures in the 70s. Our dry pattern continues, but with
more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day
and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will
increase Monday evening into Tuesday as a weak low pressure
moves towards Lake Ontario with additional chances midweek when
that low pressure is replaced by another.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1008 AM EDT Saturday...Increased PoPs to 20-40% to account
for western fringe of maritime low-level moisture plume and
light rain showers making it into Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.
A rather sharp cutoff to the mid-upper level clouds across
central VT at this time, so also make some minor adjustments to
sky cover based on surface observations. Seeing some localized
gap winds within the Green Mtns associated with the cooler,
maritime air filtering through some of the passes from east-
west. This includes 15kts at KRUT this past hour. Have made some
adjustments to the forecast accordingly.

Elsewhere, a few sprinkles are possible in the Adirondacks
today as a weak trough lingers in northern New York. Otherwise,
quiet weather with patchwork cloud cover will typify the day.
Highs will reach the 70s. For tonight, cool conditions in the
mid 40s to mid 50s are expected with more valley fog possible.
Though it may not be as prevalent in eastern Vermont with mid to
high clouds. A few models are trying to spit precipitation out
across the Connecticut River Valley towards dawn on Sunday.
However, the lower levels of the atmosphere appear quite dry,
and largely think this will be virga. During the day on Sunday,
high pressure will build south, extending into our area, with
dry and cooler weather ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...We will finish up the weekend dry as we
remain under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high
pressure. However, rain chances will gradually increase from the
west as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes shifts eastward
toward Quebec. This feature will be proceeded by a weak disturbance
approaching ahead of the main upper low. This may be enough to spark
a few showers on Monday, mainly in northern NY as moisture will
become more limited as one heads into VT. Some of this shower
activity could make it into VT overnight Monday night, but chances
remain low at this time given lack of model agreement on eastward
extent of precipitation. Monday`s daytime highs will be seasonable
though a few degrees cooler than on Sunday, generally topping out in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows both Sunday and Monday nights will be
quite similar, with the St Lawrence and Champlain Valley remaining
in the 50s while the higher terrain and much of the rest of VT will
get down into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...Shower chances will increase as we head
into the middle of next week. WHile model consensus shows best
shower chances will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the low pressure to
our west pushes a frontal boundary across our region, there remains
considerable uncertainty as to exactly how the synoptic setup will
evolve with a large upper low potentially cutting off somewhere over
northern New England/Canadian Maritimes while a southern stream
system remains somewhere over the ArkLaTex or mid-Mississippi Valley
regions. So just about every period has at least a slight chance or
low chance of showers through the end of the week. Temperatures will
be cooler but seasonable, with highs in the 60s to around 70F and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mixed VFR skies this aftn with SCT-
BKN070-120 across central/nern VT, generally SCT120-2000 across
the Champlain Valley, and SCT-BKN040-060 in the northern
Adirondacks with localized field of cumulus clouds. An isold -RW
is possible CDA-EFK area of nern VT. Little change through
early evening, and then should see cumulus clouds dissipate.
Overnight, the mid-upper level clouds across central-ern VT
should limit overall extent and intensity of any fog formation.
Mentioned just 5SM BR before sunrise Sunday at MPV with clouds
mitigating radiational fog formation. Should be a different
story in northern NY with dense LIFR fog possible at KSLK,
especially 08-1300Z. Intermittent fog is also possible at KMSS.
Once fog dissipates, should return VFR all areas of the balance
of the daylight hours on Sunday. No significant winds expected
thru the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Banacos