718
FXUS61 KBTV 181432
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the next week with no
meaningful chances for significant rainfall expected. Warmer
than normal temperatures will continue through Friday, and then
temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1032 AM EDT Wednesday...Forecast is in great shape. Much
the area is sunny this morning so have lowered sky cover,
especially through midday. Currently we have somewhat thicker
cirrus near the International Border and far south central
Vermont. The coverage of this cloud cover will increase from
south to north and fill in areawide this afternoon. Denser
clouds look to stay just south of the region, so it should still
be a filtered sunshine type of day.

Previous Discussion...High pressure continues to be the main
synoptic weather feature with persistent dry conditions and
light winds at least through Thursday. Other than a shield of
high clouds helping to limit high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s, morning fog, with some locations being dense, is
worth mentioning with near ideal conditions for radiation fog
formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night into Friday, broad and
disorganized upper low pressure will consolidate offshore. Building
high pressure over Newfoundland and coastal low pressure near the 40
N 70 W benchmark will keep north to northeast flow across the
region. High clouds will be present, but there are questions to how
much of an effect it can have since moisture seems thin. Another
rinse and repeat of low temperatures around 50 to 60 will greet us
on Friday morning. Then a backdoor cold front will shift southwest
during the day. Whether or not precipitation can occur remains
questionable with little instability and plenty of dry air. With the
front sweeping through highs should top out in the 70s and quickly
cool off in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...That high pressure building in
Newfoundland will build south on the western side of an impressive
upper low diving south across the Canadian Maritimes. This will
reinforce cool, dry air across the region. The result will be
another dose of no precipitation, but this time with temperatures
that will be around seasonal norms. By midweek there should be some
precipitation trying to eke into the region. There remains
uncertainty with the evolution of the trough against such strong
ridging north, but there still remains a possibility for rain for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Persistence seems to be the best
forecasting tool for expected fog chances this morning and again
tonight through Thursday morning. LIFR/IFR restrictions will
continue at SLK/MPV 13-14Z this morning with MVFR fog
lifting/scattering for EFK by 12-13Z. VFR conditions will
prevail for the remainder day before another round fog is
expected tonight starting after 03Z for SLK/MPV(likely LIFR)
and by 06Z for MSS/EFK(IFR possible).

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd