269
FXUS61 KBTV 021727
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through early this
week, keeping the weather pleasant and dry through at least
early Wednesday. A frontal boundary will bring increasing
chances for showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at
this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 121 PM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Incoming high clouds have mostly dissipated as
they`ve moved south out of Quebec, but fair weather cumulus have
bubbled up over the higher terrain as expected. So mostly to
partly skies still look reasonable for the remainder of the
afternoon. Temperatures have warmed nicely under ample sunshine,
and should top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Made some slight
adjustments to temperatures to bring a few spots more into line
with latest conditions, but overall the forecast is in good
shape.

Previous discussion...Fair weather will continue from
today into Wednesday with ridge of surface high pressure
continuing to control our weather across the north country. The
day will begin sunny, and increasing afternoon cumulus clouds
are anticipated, especially over the higher terrain. Maximum
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
front lifts north into our region overnight, and we`ll mainly
just see an increase in clouds with this feature, as well as
mild overnight temperatures. Minimum temperatures will range
from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Ridge of surface high pressure
will begin to slide eastward on Wednesday, making way for next
approaching system. Southerly flow will develop across our
region, and will become brisk. High temperatures on Wednesday
will again be very warm, ranging through the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...The main features of interest for
the work week continue to be a prefrontal trough passage
Wednesday night and weak cold front Thursday afternoon/evening.
The majority of precipitation is expected to be with the pre-
frontal trough, but with the parent surface low and upper level
support forecast to track well north of the region across James
Bay, and timing of the boundary`s passage being at night, there
will be little instability to work with so the threat for strong
thunderstorms is low. Some elevated instability combined with
PWATs around 1.5" do support the possibility of moderate rain
though, especially across northern New York where the boundary
looks more organized compared to Vermont. By Thursday morning
the feature should be shifting east of the region with mainly
dry conditions expected for the holiday, but the actual cold
front may produce a few isolated showers in the late afternoon
and evening. After a few days of dry and comfortable conditions
to start the week, midweek will see a return of a warmer and
more humid airmass with overnight lows ranging through the 60s,
highs in the mid/upper 80s, and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure returns
briefly for Friday with seasonal highs in the 80s and humidity
slightly elevated with dewpoints around 60, but come Saturday
deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential for a closed mid/upper level system to track through
the Great Lakes and push a warm front through the North Country
and Vermont late Friday night into Saturday, and cold front
Saturday afternoon/night. Deep southwesterly flow ushers in
another humid airmass with PWATs rising to near 2", but ensemble
probabilities of greater than 2" is quite low with the axis of
deepest moisture remaining south of the region across the mid-
Atlantic states. Regardless, enough moisture could be present to
support a threat for heavy rain within any thunderstorms that
develop as current timing of the cold front and forecast
soundings support the idea of some stronger storms with SBCAPE
over 1000 J/kg and 50kts of 0-6km shear depicted on the 00Z GFS.
It`s certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
entire TAF period. Skies mainly FEW-SCT AOA 5000 ft with a mix
of fair weather cumulus and some mid/high clouds. This will be
the trend through the remainder of this afternoon, with mid/high
clouds increasing from 00z onward. Chances of fog at KSLK and
KMPV will depend on how thick/extensive clouds remain overnight;
current thinking is any fog would be very brief and have left
out of the TAFs at this time. Winds light and variable and
mainly terrain-driven through 12z Wednesday, then trending
toward south/southwest at 6 to 12 kt. Localized gusts to 20 kt
possible, mainly at KBTV.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hastings