127
FXUS61 KBTV 270744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail into the start of next week with
temperatures a bit above climatological normals. Fog development is
likely overnight in the typical valleys. The next chance of rain is
mid-week as a cold front moves through. Overall, it will be a
pleasant stretch of fall weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Friday...Extensive fog and low stratus have
developed overnight. On top of being fog season, they were helped by
yeaterday`s rain and a lack of boundary layer wind to scour out the
moisture. The fog and stratus have developed across the
climatologically favored valleys and also in other areas like much
of the Champlain Valley. Winds aloft will only decrease as the night
goes on and skies should remain mostly clear, so they should
continue to develop and spread. Temperatures have been steadily
dropping but the development of the fog and stratus has slowed the
rate of decrease a little. Temperatures should still fall a couple
more degrees by daybreak though. The upper level trough will
continue to move out to the east today and ridging will build in.
Surface high pressure will remain centered over eastern Canada and
it will keep the remnants of Helene well to the southwest. Helene`s
only impacts could be a few very thin high clouds. Sunny skies and a
relatively warm airmass for the time of year will allow temperatures
to rise into the upper 60s and mid 70s today. Clear skies and calm
winds tonight will allow for another night of efficient radiational
cooling. Fog will at least develop in the climatologically favored
valleys, but whether it spreads outside of there areas remains to be
seen as it will be a day removed from rainfall. Temperatures will
fall into the 40s and low 50s. Saturday looks to be almost a copy of
today, though temperatures will rise a couple degrees higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Friday...Little change in guidance this cycle with
regards to large scale synoptic pattern which features building
mid/upper lvl ridge over the northern Great Lakes into southern
Canada, while remnants of Helene slowly weaken over the TN/OH
Valleys. Using the progged IR satl feature from the GFS indicates
intervals of high clouds are likely from time to time during this
period. In addition, have noted both GFS/NAM soundings show
additional lobes of moisture btwn 850mb and 700mb on Sat Night,
which may limit areal coverage of fog. Otherwise, a 1020mb high pres
nosing into our northern cwa, wl keep moisture associated with the
remnants of Helene to our south and west thru the short term. Modest
low level waa continues on Sunday into Monday, with progged 925mb
temps btwn 16-18C, supporting highs well into the 70s on Sunday.
Lows mainly in the 50s, with some cooler 40s in deeper mtn valleys
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Friday...Overall a very quiet with minimal
impactful/hazardous wx for the next 4 to 7 days. Still have 50 to
60% pops for weak frontal passage on Tues night into Weds. As this
system becomes closer in time, we should be able to narrow timing of
precip to a 3 to 6 hour window from west to east acrs our cwa. GFS
is very progressive with moving boundary acrs our fa, while ECMWF
tries to advect lingering moisture from mid/upper lvl cyclonic
circulation over the Ohio Valley into our cwa on Tues into Weds.
This would produce a longer duration of precip, with some slightly
higher qpf amounts. PW values range btwn 1.2 and 1.4" on Tues/Weds
ahead of boundary with favorable jet structure at 250mb for
promoting large scale synoptic ascent. If these ingredients combined
with low level convergence along boundary continue to be present
with upcoming system, pops wl need to be increased. In addition,
still some uncertainty on timing, but once our guidance fine tunes
the timing, confidence wl increase, resulting in some higher pops in
the categorical (80-90%) range late Tues into Weds time frame. Llvl
caa behind this boundary is modest, so most of the cooler temps wl
be driven by the increasing clouds/precip on Tues/Weds, with temps
mostly in the 60s. However, southerly flow ahead of this wl help
advect much above normal temps into our cwa on Sunday/Monday with
highs well into the 70s to near 80F. Lows generally in the upper 40s
to upper 50s, cool back into the upper 30s to upper 40s by Weds and
Thurs nights.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday... Widespread fog and low stratus have
developed this evening and they will expand in coverage as the night
goes on. Every terminal should see periods of IFR conditions and it
is likely to be consistent except at PBG and MSS. The fog/stratus
will lift at all terminals by mid-morning and VFR conditions will
persist for the rest of the day. Winds will be mostly calm
overnight, before increasing a little during the day and becoming
northwesterly. Winds will go light tonight. Fog will develop tonight
as well, at least at MPV, EFK and SLK, but possibly elsewhere as
well.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski