655
FXUS61 KBTV 170209
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1009 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The pleasant weekend we experienced will be a distant memory
soon enough. Temperatures warm sharply over the next couple of
days leading to the warmest temperatures seen in the area in
several years. Be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid
heat stress Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1001 PM EDT Sunday...No big changes with this update.
Increasing cloud cover and increasing southerly winds will keep
us significantly warmer than the past several night with lows in
the 60s across the region.

Previous
Discussion...High clouds have built into the CWA over the past
several hours. These clouds along with southerly winds will keep
temperatures considerably higher than we saw last night. A weak
warm front will pass through Northern New York and Vermont on
Monday, with high temperatures close to 10F warmer than today.
Areas close to the Canadian border will have a chance of showers
overnight, spreading into the Dacks by Monday morning. These
scattered showers will not linger and lift out by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...
     HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* Key points: A prolonged period of dangerous to potentially extreme
heat is expected across the majority of the North Country and all
of Vermont Tuesday through Thursday. This is a rare and
potentially life threatening event for our region, with little to
no overnight relief expected. Impacts are likely to some health
systems, heat sensitive industries, and infrastructure.

The forecast remains relatively unchanged for the period with an
anonymously strong near 560dm 500mb ridge situated to our south
through the period, with daily rises of 925mb temperatures to +25-
27C along the spine of the Appalachians and points westward. With
efficient mixing to 925mb and above, high temperatures are expected
to rise to near or above record levels in the 90s, with ensemble
probabilities still flirting with the potential for a few 100s on
Wednesday. Adding to the heat are PWATs in excess of 150% of normal
which will be felt at the surface as dewpoints in the upper 60s to
low 70s which will result in heat indices in excess of 95 degrees,
and potentially up to 105 degrees for portions of the Champlain, St.
Lawrence, and southern Connecticut River Valleys. Adding to the
misery is that overnight lows won`t provide much relief, only
falling off into the upper 60s to low 70s, which provides a
cumulative impact to the heat. Experimental NWS Heat Risk highlights
all of this well, forecasting major to extreme heat conditions
across the region, and warrants people to be extra vigilant of your
health, drinking plenty of water and avoiding prolonged strenuous
activity during the hottest time of day. Be sure to check up on your
family, friends, neighbors, and those most vulnerable to heat.

The threat for precipitation is additionally non-zero through the
period, though the likelihood is low outside of the chance for an
isolated storm to develop on the daily lake breeze or over the
Adirondacks. If something could get going though, the potential for
heavy rain and/or a wet microburst does exist given how juiced the
airmass will be. The best chance for any precipitation will be on
Thursday as a weak pre-frontal trough approaches from the north and
could provide enough synoptic support near the international border
to produce isolated to scattered storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...A much welcomed front arrives Thursday
night into Friday providing relief from the heat, and likely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the front remains
uncertain, and an earlier arrival Thursday evening/night could
provide greater potential for stronger storms across northern zones,
while southern areas will see the best chance Friday afternoon. High
pressure builds into the region briefly for Friday night, with
rising chances for showers and thunderstorms on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...It will be a quiet 24 hour TAF period all
things considered, with prevailing VFR conditions at all sites
as ceilings remain high. There is a shortwave that is expected
to ride through or north of the forecast area tomorrow, but
conditions are too dry for much precipitation to reach the
ground, let alone lower visibilities at TAF sites.

The only real piece of interest over the next 24 hours will be
wind directions and speeds changing. Winds are generally calm or
light and variable as of Sunday evening, but should begin to
increase around the 02Z-12Z Monday time frame, generally out of
the south. Gusts 15-25 knots out of the south/southwest are
anticipated at BTV and SLK from 11Z-21Z Monday. Meanwhile, other
sites could have sustained winds up to around 15 knots. MSS may
experience some low level wind shear around 09Z-12Z Monday as a
weakening low level jet brushes by associated with the
previously mentioned shortwave.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 98
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 93
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 93
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 93

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 98
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 94
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 89

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 30


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 70

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 72
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 68

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ026>029-031-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Langbauer
NEAR TERM...Clay/Langbauer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Storm
CLIMATE...Team BTV