314
FXUS61 KBTV 170528
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue through midweek. While chances for
isolated to scattered showers return on Friday and Saturday,
high pressure will quickly build back over the North Country to
support more dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 123 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes needed with this update.
Clear skies continue to prevail across the forecast area, with
another night of valley fog development expected. The current
forecast has this all covered and remains on track.

Previous Discussion...The Rex Block pattern that has kept our
weather sunny and warm day after day will continue into Tuesday.
A corridor of slightly more humid low level air, featuring
valley dew points mainly in the low to mid 60s, is focused over
our region today. The heat and humidity is helping to generate a
lot of fair weather cumulus in our higher terrain, but strong
ridging aloft will cap these clouds through the rest of the day
such that no showers are expected. We`re struggling to mix down
the dry air aloft, however, which is keeping temperatures
slightly cooler than forecast.

Tomorrow a subtle shift of low level winds to more of a
westerly direction is forecast during the day, but really for
most purposes the sensible weather will remain the same so highs
will likely be about the same as today. The persistent, large
ridge in place will minimize cloud cover and 850 millibar
temperatures look similar if not slightly higher than today. We
had been anticipating some increase in high altitude clouds
associated with the tropical/hybrid cyclone near the Carolinas,
but the system has trended farther south such that this cirrus
that moves into our area will tend to be scattered rather than
opaque. As such, it still may effectively be sunny, especially
as one goes farther north/east in New York and Vermont. Any
cloud cover will not impact fog formation, which should be
rather robust overnight given slightly higher dew points than
yesterday. Then tomorrow night, marginally lower surface
moisture points to less coverage and duration of fog but
generally.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue
to feature quiet weather with warm temperatures for Northern New
York and Vermont. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower to mid
80s on Wednesday, with minimum temperatures then only dropping onto
the 50s to around 60. Winds will be light with partly cloudy skies.
There will be some chance for showers south of our forecast area as
remnants of tropical system pass along southern New England coast.
High pressure riding over our area should keep all of this activity
to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Mainly dry weather will continue from
Thursday through Monday. Could see an outside chance for an isolated
light rain shower on both Friday and Saturday, but for the most part
no significant weather is anticipated. Really strong ridging remains
in place over the region. Temperatures will trend back towards
seasonal normals during this period, but mainly dry weather
continues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Calm winds and clear skies are
providing ideal conditions for fog formation again. LIFR/IFR fog
is already occurring at SLK with MPV the next most likely spot
for fog. MSS has bounced around tonight from IFR to VFR with a
light return to LIFR conditions by 9Z. EFK is the next location
with chances of fog mainly 08-11Z. For BTV, fog has formed in
the Winooski Valley and will drain down the river valley
adjacent to the airfield; drainage wind flow at BTV has been
more southeasterly, but will need to watch for any further shift
out of the river valley to see if fog will advect over the
terminal. Otherwise, light variable flow will return after 12Z
as fog burns off and high clouds increase. More fog is probable
after 03Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Boyd