321
FXUS61 KBTV 151655
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in our weather through early in the week. Mainly dry
and sunny with the exception of an isolated shower possible in the
Adirondacks today. Patchy late night, early morning fog each day as
well.  Highs will once again be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1013 AM EDT Sunday...GOES-16 visible satl imagery still
indicates some lingering pockets of fog near MPV and parts of
the CT River Valley which wl burn off by the top of the hour.
Otherwise, as convective temps are reached and weak instability
develops from sfc heating, expect some cumulus clouds to develop
over the trrn again this aftn. Similar to yesterday a spot
shower or two is possible acrs the northern Dacks btwn 18-21z
this aftn, where convergence associated with decaying boundary
is slightly better. Otherwise, temps very similar to yesterday
with highs upper 70s to mid 80s and comfortable humidity values.

Previous discussion...Nearly vertically stacked high pressure
across the forecast area means mainly dry and slowly modifying
airmass during the day and light winds and fog at night.

A weak boundary that brought an isolated shower/two to northern VT
yesterday will be across northern NY today with a possible similar
result. Otherwise it continues mainly sunny, warm and dry through
Monday and beyond.

Progged 925mb temps are basically the same as yesterday for today
thus similar temperatures with perhaps a bump up a degree or two for
Monday. Highs in the upper 70s to l-m80s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Sunday...The center of a large are of high pressure
will shift off to the east Monday night into Tuesday. This will
allow some tropical moisture to begin to move up the coast toward
our area. While any related showers will remain well to the south,
some mid and high clouds will start to enter the region. The clouds
do not look to arrive until the day on Tuesday, so Monday night
should be another night with extensive fog formation in the
climatologically favored valleys. The clouds should be thin enough
during the day to not affect the solar heating too much, so
temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s again for most
places. Forecast 925 mb temperatures around 20 celsius also support
this. The record high temperature of 81 in Montpelier is in jeopardy
as the forecast high there is 81. There will continue to be some
humidity, particularly in the broad valleys, where the dew points
will generally be in the low to mid 60s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Sunday...A low will move up the Eastern Seaboard and
toward the region on Wednesday and Thursday. It may briefly become
tropical when it is still off the southeast coast, but by the time
it would reach our area, it would be post-tropical and very weak. As
it moves north, it will be running into an area of high pressure
trying to move south from Canada. The exact placement of the high
will determine how far north the showers will be able to reach.
Looking at the ensembles, the current most likely solution is that
there would be a couple showers across southern and central areas on
Thursday-Friday while the northern areas would remain mostly dry.
Therefore, continued slight chance PoPs in central and southern for
that time frame. However, there is still high model uncertainty so
confidence is pretty low. The Canadian and its ensembles are the
wettest, bringing a 50 percent chance of measurable rain north to
international border. The EC ensembles bring those PoPs only into
southern Vermont and the GEFS is now the driest, keeping them south
of the region. However, a backdoor cold front will pass through on
Friday and it could bring a few showers to northern areas, and the
GEFS has the highest probabilities of that. This backdoor front will
finally bring temperatures a bit closer to climatological normals
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Following mostly a persistent aviation
forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours with respects to fog
development and areal coverage. VFR conditions prevail at all
sites thru 04z tonight, before areas of fog develops btwn 06-07z
at SLK/MPV and EFK. Slightly less confidence of IFR and fog at
MSS and PBG due to a tad lower sfc dwpts and slightly stronger
winds of 8 to 12 knots at 200 to 400 ft above ground level. Have
utilized tempo between 08-11z at MSS and have no IFR conditions
expected at PBG/BTV and RUT. Any fog lifts by 12z at EFK/SLK
and 14z at MPV with VFR prevailing again on Monday with south
winds 4 to 8 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Taber/SLW
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber