753
FXUS61 KBTV 210543
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There are some isolated showers developing over the region this
afternoon, rainfall will be light. Weather conditions will
become dry once again heading into next week, but with more
seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and
lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Saturday...The region is mostly clear, but
there are pockets of high clouds in the Northeast Kingdom, some
marine-layer type stratus clouds in southern Vermont and
hugging the eastern foothills of the Adirondacks, and a few
high clouds on the eastern edge of a shortwave pivoting north
over Lake Huron. Partial cloud cover, light gradient flow at
the surface, and winds aloft are keeping fog from forming
quickly. Forecast guidance suggests these factors will abate
later tonight. So during the pre-dawn hours, we should see fog
expand across climatologically favored spots. All is generally
on track. Have a great night!

Excerpt of previous discussion...
Minimum temperatures overnight will dip into the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Saturday will continue to feature dry and quiet
weather. This will be00 the first day in a while that we`re not
seeing temperatures creep up into the 80s, so it may feel on the
cool side although it`s still warmer than seasonal normals.
Afternoon maximum temperatures will range from the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Cooling trend will continue for Saturday night with low
temperatures dipping into the mid 40s to mid 50s, and we could
once again see some fog in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...Dry weather will persist for the
second half of the weekend as the region remains under the
influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, and feel quite fall-
like after this recent warmth, especially with some partially
sunny skies. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the
40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...The region will remain under the
influence of high pressure and upper level ridging through the
beginning of next week, bringing another day or two of dry
weather.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable
precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough over
the Great Lakes region shifts northeastwards towards Quebec.
This pattern shift will bring increased chances of showers,
which will be beneficial given how dry most of the month of
September has been. Model consensus shows the greatest chances
for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes
into northern New York with the low pressure to our west. Beyond
Wednesday, there continue to be chances for scattered showers,
but there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of
the synoptic pattern, so trends will need to be monitored.
Temperatures next week will continue to be rather seasonable,
with daytime highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s and overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Conditions are a mix of MVFR and VFR as
some stratus around 2000-2800 ft agl are lingering near
mountainous terrain, and some patchy fog at KSLK. There is some
gradient flow keeping fog at bay for now, but this should
lighten up, and we should see fog become more dominant at
favored locations like KSLK and KMPV about 08z to 09z. Clouds
will linger at KEFK and in and out near KMSS, which should limit
fog compared to the last several nights, but did TEMPO some 4SM
BR for a few hours based on little overall change to the
current weather pattern. Beyond 12-13z, fog will diminish with
mainly VFR conditions throughout the day. Clouds today will
generally remain at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be south to
southeast around 4 to 8 knots, except northeast at KMSS,
through about 00z and then trend light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes/Storm