Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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926 FXUS61 KBUF 231046 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... One more day of warm and humid weather today, though a cold front will slide across the area this afternoon with fairly widespread showers and drenching thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, cooler and less humid air will spread across the area for the start of the new work week, though this break will be brief. A roller coaster in temperatures for the rest of the week as warm weather will then return Tuesday and Wednesday before dipping back down later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Currently across western and north central New York, a stationary front lies from west to east across the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Radar imagery is depicting showers and thunderstorms to the north of this boundary across southern Canada. To the south, dry weather prevails. As this morning progresses, the frontal boundary will gradually advance northward as the surface low over the central Great Lakes strengthens. Overall this will continue to support plenty of warm air advection across the area (as seen by warm temperatures across the ASOS sites early this morning,places across WNY in the low 80s and mid to upper 70s across the North Country ). While the North Country has seen plenty of active weather so far this morning, more active weather is expected throughout the day today, especially during the midday and afternoon. A potent upper level shortwave and associated deepening surface low trekking across the central Great Lakes along the Canadian and United States border. A pre-frontal trough will slide across the area from west to east starting mid morning across WNY. This will then be followed by the cold front later this afternoon. All of this being said, two rounds of convection will be quite plausible today. The first round of convection will occur with the pre-frontal trough, with the second round coming ahead of the cold frontal passage this afternoon. Looking further into the details, instability will be present with surface based CAPE forecast values to peak around 2000 J/kg, especially this afternoon. Additionally, shear profiles will become favorable with approximately 40 to 50 knots of effective shear, especially east of the Genesee Valley. These factors combined, are reason that SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe weather across much of western and north central New York, highlighting the areas inland from the lakes. Main threats today will be damaging winds, with a lesser threat for large hail. An isolated can`t be ruled out either. Additionally, there is the potential for heavy rain provided the amount of moisture content in the atmosphere. On the bright side, the convection should be tracking at a quick enough pace that the flash flooding threat will be more limited. The convection will continue into the early evening hours tonight as the surface cold front exits east of the eastern Lake Ontario region. Additionally, just to the north of the New York State/Canadian border will lie a surface low. A passing shortwave trough aloft tonight will support scattered showers to continue across western and north central New York with the best chances lying closer to the surface low across the North Country. In the wake of the front tonight, sleeping conditions will be much improved as humidity and temperatures drop. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A potent mid-level shortwave and associated sfc low is advertised to pass through the St. Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Given that there will be some lingering moisture and lift from the passing trough, showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible through Monday afternoon. Some gusty NNW winds will also be possible on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the trough. Otherwise...the best part will be the relief from the oppressive heat and humidity this past week. Highs on Monday will be a solid 10F to 15F cooler areawide with low to mid 70s across the region. High pressure begins to build in at all levels Monday evening which will bring an end to any lingering showers. All indications are that dry weather will `likely` persist into the day Tuesday. A warm front does approach the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. We might see a shower or an isolated thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A better chance for showers and storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold front nears the Lower Lakes. After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with most locales found in the 80s again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in another much more refreshing airmass into western and northcentral NY for the latter part of the work week. This should result in mainly dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs low to mid 70s Thursday, then tacking on several degrees for Friday as airmass starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area. Dew points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June. Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances then look to return as we head toward the first half of next weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Despite the showers and few rumbles of thunder across the North Country earlier this morning, all TAF sites remain VFR. These VFR conditions won`t last long as today will be VERY active with showers and thunderstorms due to a cold front crossing the area from west to east. Along and behind the frontal boundary, CIGS will drop off to IFR and MVFR, generally taking place after 15Z this morning. MVFR and IFR conditions will continue into the first portion of the evening hours as showers and thunderstorms taper off from west to east. Then LIFR and IFR CIGS will form late tonight. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes. Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions. Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds and minimal wave action will continue for the next couple of hours on Lake Ontario. However, this is not the case for Lake Erie as a cold front approaches the region, increasing southwest winds and bringing Small Craft Advisories. Additionally today, a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible crossing both Lakes, which will also bring the potential for locally strong winds and waves. In the wake of the front this afternoon and evening, a shift from southwesterly to northerly flow will support continued choppy conditions to the lakes, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Ontario Monday. High pressure builds in across both lakes Monday and lasts through Tuesday, diminishing winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR/JM AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ