Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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236 FXUS61 KBUF 180250 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather for the foreseeable future. Next chance for some much needed rain may not come until early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Rather thick cirrus will `likely` obscure any chance of seeing the partial lunar eclipse of the Harvest Super moon tonight. If we are able to get a glimpse...just 8 percent of the top of the full moon will become dark, with the eclipse lasting roughly through 12:47 AM. Otherwise...dry weather with high pressure over the region, look for mins in the 50s. A large upper level storm system centered over the southern Appalachians south-southeast will direct a wealth of high level clouds across our region. Even so...a fairly stout ridge will keep the area precipitation free through Wednesday night and mild. Highs Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the vast majority of the region. These temperatures are more typical for July or early August. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Coastal low pressure will dance off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday through Friday night. A mid-level ridge will be over the eastern Great Lakes region while deep moisture remains well east of the forecast area. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to southwest Friday through Friday night. Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area. Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid- West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend down but be above normal through the Long Term period. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cirrus will continue to stream across the region tonight. No impact to aviation operations with VFR expected into Wednesday. Between 08 and 12z overnight...there may be some valley fog to contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally over some of the airfields (ie. KJHW and KELZ). Confidence isn`t all that high. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient will promote light winds, under 10 knots, and very little wave action through the rest of this week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/RSH SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR