103
FXUS61 KBUF 270250
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1050 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south and east of the area through first
half of the night. High pressure will then build across the Great
Lakes, providing fair and dry weather through Friday. For the
weekend the remnants of Helene will approach from the south,
bringing an increase in cloud cover and possibly a few rain showers
at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front extending across Central New York will continue to push
south and east of the area this evening. Behind this passing cold
high clouds are found south of Lake Ontario, with some clearing
still across the North Country. Thicker high clouds are currently
slowly pushing north into the Southern Tier. High clouds will
continue to try and push farther north, with any high clouds
thinning with northward progression.

High pressure will ridge into the region behind the front tonight.
This will keep the area dry, however skies will only remain clear
for the North Country since high clouds associated with moisture
from the tropics will push northward into the area. This will
prevent fog from forming for most areas, except for east of Lake
Ontario where fog is likely to develop tonight.

High pressure to our north will keep Friday rain free, however
clouds will continue to move northward across the area during
the day. Highs will mainly be in the lower 70s, but will
forecast will hedge slightly on the cool side of model guidance
due to the extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
What used to look like a spectacular weekend is now looking a
little less so. It will be far from a washout, but there will be
quite a bit of cloud cover and periodic chances for showers. The
reason is the remnants of Helene. While there remains high
confidence that high pressure to our north will keep the center
of its remnant circulation well to our south, moisture from the
very large hurricane will be able to spread into our region.
Overall, the vast majority of the weekend will be rain-free
however there`s a chance of showers especially across the
Southern Tier which will be a bit closer to the remnant low.
Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a moderate northeasterly
wind.

Temperatures will be above normal, and generally comfortable for
outdoor activities. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and overnight lows mainly in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The remnants of Helene will linger to our south and west Monday,
with the moisture close enough to support a small chance of
showers across southern and western parts of the area. After
this, a mid-level trough will move across southern Canada, which
will effectively sweep out the remnant moisture Tuesday into
Wednesday. However, models differ in the strength of this
trough and with its interaction with the tropical remnants. The
majority of model guidance pick up limited tropical moisture as
a cold front moves across the area Tuesday night. A notable
exception is the 12Z GEM which phases the tropical moisture with
the shortwave. In this lower chance scenario would bring a more
significant rainfall with amounts around an inch.

Either way, the cold front/system will exit to our east
Wednesday, with cooler weather and highs mainly in the 60s behind
it. A small chance of showers Wednesday, then high pressure
building in behind the front will bring fair and dry weather for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in behind an earlier passing cold front
tonight and Friday. The high will keep it rain-free but cloud cover
associated with tropical moisture will begin to push in from the
south tonight. This will prevent fog from forming at KJHW and most
other TAF sites, however there is a risk of fog at KART where skies
will remain clear tonight.

Any fog will quickly dissipate Friday, with mainly VFR flight
conditions. Some clouds with bases around 4k feet will push into
the Southern Tier with patchy MVFR possible.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in low
cigs and showers across the Southern Tier at times.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and negligible waves through tonight as high
pressure ridges in from the north. Northeast flow will then
pick up Friday, likely requiring small craft headlines on Lake
Erie and western Lake Ontario for at least some of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/SW
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel