342
FXUS61 KBUF 130001
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
801 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area Sunday...and in the process will
generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. In the wake
of the front drier weather will return on Monday, along with
somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low-level convergence axis that triggered some widely scattered
convection across far western New York late this afternoon/very
early this evening continues to drift eastward...with this now
draped from just west of Wellsville to just west of Rochester. The
bulk of any lingering convection is slowly weakening as it pushes
across western portions of the Rochester area...with some more
isolated activity noted over Allegany county. All of this should
continue to drift northeastward and weaken over the next few hours
with the loss of heating...though still cannot rule out an
additional few cells popping up across the Genesee Valley/western
Finger Lakes through that time.

Otherwise...we can expect a sultry night with a modest southerly
flow of subtropical warmth and moisture advecting across our region
out ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. Lows will range
from the upper 60s across the interior portions of the Southern
Tier/North Country to the mid 70s across the lake plains...along
with surface dewpoints ranging within a few degrees of 70. Given
this airmass...there will be a continued chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms as we push through the night...particularly during the
second half of the night as a shortwave trough begins to impinge
upon our area. Some patchy valley fog will also become possible
within the Southern Tier river valleys later on tonight.

Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not look
quite as hot as this afternoon. That being said...some of the
warmest heat indices could still get into the lower 90s along the
lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and
humidity will be out ahead of an approaching cold front slowly
pushing into the region, resulting in increasing coverage of showers
and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will
bring the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will
certainly be elevated during this time, especially from slower
moving and/or training thunderstorms. The greatest threat will be
from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and east of
Lake Ontario.

Main surface cold front doesn`t make it through the area until
Sunday night with convection ending fairly quickly behind the
passage of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure behind a cold front will bring fair weather,
and lowering dewpoints Monday and Tuesday.

As this surface high shifts eastward Wednesday a southernly return
flow of very warm and humid air will bring the return of
uncomfortable conditions (heat index values upper 80s to lower 90s)
with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A humid (PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface temperatures
in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers and
thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm
development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave
trough.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night
through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.

Uncertainty increases to start next weekend as a few 12Z models
depict a slower passage to this cold front with a surface wave upon
which would linger showers and thunderstorms into the start of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering diurnally-driven convection will weaken as it pushes
across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes early this
evening...before fading out after sunset. This could result in
highly localized MVFR/IFR...mainly in the vicinity of KROC early
this evening. As we push through the night (particularly the second
half)...there will remain the risk of a few additional pop-up
showers and thunderstorms and associated brief/localized
restrictions as a shortwave trough impinges upon our region...though
in general VFR conditions will continue to largely prevail. This
being said...some patchy valley fog and associated reductions in
visibility will become possible across the Southern Tier overnight.

On Sunday...a slow-moving cold front will approach our region and
trigger the development of fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rainfall) between the late
morning and afternoon hours. These may produce brief/localized
reductions (mainly in visibility) to MVFR or even IFR...with VFR
conditions otherwise prevailing.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions across the eastern two-thirds of the area diminishing
from west to east...otherwise VFR with some IFR/MVFR in lower
ceilings possible across the interior of the Southern Tier/North
Country overnight.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action will prevail through tonight. A
slow moving cold front will then bring increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday night. Winds will pick up a
bit ahead and with the front, but will still remain well below any
headline criteria.

Behind the front...winds will be fairly light Sunday night through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...AR/JJR/TMA