662
FXUS61 KBUF 170908
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
508 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the lower Great Lakes through midweek, maintaining dry and
warm weather across our region. The only difference from the past
several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that
will push northward from low pressure drifting north from the
Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. High pressure will build back
providing more sunshine and continued warm weather for the
remainder of the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery showing a shield of cirrus level cloudiness
advancing across the region this morning, as upper level
moisture streams northward ahead of weak low pressure over the
Carolinas. This weak low will drift slowly northward through
tonight which will support persistent cirrus level cloudiness
across our region. Strong and persistent high pressure surface
and aloft will block any deeper low/mid level moisture from
moving much north of the Mason/Dixon line through tonight,
keeping rain associated with the system well removed from our
area. Despite the upper level cloud cover high temperatures
today will still manage to reach the the lower 80s for lower
elevations and mid to upper 70s for high terrain and the
immediate shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to trend even drier for the middle and
latter portion of the work week as high pressure looks to remain in
control across the lower Great Lakes, so much drier in fact that we
are no longer expecting much of anything in the way of shower
activity in the short term period for our area. Deeper moisture
associated with a weakening area of low pressure that will now be
located near the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday, will be shunted
southeast of our region as the low slowly drifts northeast along the
Atlantic coast. By Thursday, the low will be located south of the
southern New England coast. While this may bring some showers to
southeastern New York and southern New England, northward
progression of the system will all but cease as surface high
pressure remains anchored across northern New England southwestward
through much of New York State. This high will keep dry conditions
in place across western and northcentral NY through Thursday night,
although some mid and upper level cloud cover will be present at
times.

Daytime temperatures will remain at least some 10 degrees or so
above average through the period with highs both days mainly in the
upper 70s to around 80, with mid 70s across the higher terrain.
Despite the warm daytime temperatures, longer September nights and
comfortable humidity levels will allow the fairly large diurnal
range in temps to continue with lows mainly ranging through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather across western
and northcentral NY with mainly dry weather expected right through
the upcoming weekend. That said, there will be weak backdoor cold
front that will slowly approach our area on Friday from the
northeast as high pressure builds back across the region from east-
central Quebec southwest into New England. This boundary may
possibly then possibly stall or slowly crawl from northeast to
southwest across the area through the first half of the weekend,
before the high finally builds a bit further southwest shoving the
cold front to our west by Sunday. The main impact of this boundary
will be a slow cooling of our surface temps with highs falling from
the upper 70s to near 80 Friday and Saturday, to the upper 60s and
low 70s by Monday, which is still a bit above normal for this time
of year. Of no surprise the boundary is moisture-starved, so will
keep PoPs below SChc at this point. Looking toward the tail end of
the period, some of the medium range guidance is now showing the
ridge finally breaking down sometime early next week, with the next
chance for some precipitation possibly moving in as early as late
Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some patchy fog across the Southern Tier river valleys and east of
Lake Ontario early this morning may bring some 4-6SM vsby
restrictions to KART through 12z.

A shield of cirrus level clouds will be across the region today
as upper level moisture spreads north from a weak low drifting
from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.

Outlook...

Tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10
knots most of the time.

+&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA