771
FXUS61 KBUF 170808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the lower Great Lakes through midweek, maintaining dry and
warm weather across our region. The only difference from the past
several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that
will push northward from low pressure drifting north from the
Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. High pressure will build back
providing more sunshine and continued warm weather for the
remainder of the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery showing a shield of cirrus level cloudiness
advancing across the region this morning, as upper level
moisture streams northward ahead of weak low pressure over the
Carolinas. This weak low will drift slowly northward through
tonight which will support persistent cirrus level cloudiness
across our region. Strong and persistent high pressure surface
and aloft will block any deeper low/mid level moisture from
moving much north of the Mason/Dixon line through tonight,
keeping rain associated with the system well removed from our
area. Despite the upper level cloud cover high temperatures
today will still manage to reach the the lower 80s for lower
elevations and mid to upper 70s for high terrain and the
immediate shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model consensus continues to trend even drier for the middle and
latter portion of the work week as high pressure looks to remain in
control across the lower Great Lakes, so much drier in fact that we
are no longer expecting anything in the way of shower activity in
short term period for our area. Deeper moisture associated with a
weakening area of low pressure that will now be located near the Mid
Atlantic coast Wednesday, will be shunted southeast of our region as
the low slowly drifts northeast along the Atlantic coastline. By
Thursday, the low will be located south of the southern New England
coastline. While this may bring some showers to southeastern New
York and southern New England, northward progression of the system
will all but cease as surface high pressure remains anchored across
northern New England southwestward through much of New York State.
This high will keep dry conditions locked in across western and
northcentral NY through Thursday night, although some mid and upper
level cloud cover will be present at times.

Temperatures will remain at least some 10 degrees or so above
average through the period with highs both days mainly in the upper
70s to around 80, with mid 70s across the higher terrain. Despite
the warm daytime temperatures, longer nights and comfortable
humidity levels will allow the fairly large diurnal range in temps
to continue with lows mainly ranging through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rex block will maintain warm and dry weather this weekend across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will
continue Friday through Monday, however highs will be a few degrees
lower than our current stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some patchy fog across the Southern Tier river valleys and east of
Lake Ontario early this morning may bring some 4-6SM vsby
restrictions to KART through 12z.

A shield of cirrus level clouds will be across the region today
as upper level moisture spreads north from a weak low drifting
from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.

Outlook...

Tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10
knots most of the time.

+&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA