394
FXUS61 KBUF 162307
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
707 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back
across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night, and this will
maintain dry and warm weather throughout our region. The only
difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket
of highs clouds that will push northward from low pressure drifting
north from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. While a brief light
shower cannot be ruled out for parts of the Southern Tier on
Wednesday, high pressure will build back in to provide more dry and
warm weather for the remainder of the week and next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery showing a veil of cirrus clouds advancing north
across the region this evening as upper level moisture streams
northward ahead of weak low pressure over the Carolinas. This weak
low will continue to drift northward through Tuesday night,
supporting persistent cirrus level cloudiness across the eastern
Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday night. Strong and persistent
high pressure surface and aloft will block any deeper low/mid level
moisture from moving much north of the Mason/Dixon line through
Tuesday night, keeping rain associated with the system well removed
from our area.

Above normal temperatures will continue through midweek and beyond.
Lows will drop back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake
plains and low to mid 50s for the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
North Country tonight and Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will reach
the lower 80s for lower elevations and mid to upper 70s for high
terrain and the immediate shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance is trending drier and warmer later in the work week
across the eastern Great Lakes region. A stacked closed low over the
southern Appalachians today will move east and open up and join a
trough along the east coast by Friday. A strong west to east
oriented ridge across the Great Lakes region will halt the forward
progress of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic region. Global
deterministic models and ensemble blends are consistent with this
trend. The chance for showers has lowered to 10-20% across the
western Southern Tier to Finger Lakes region Wednesday to Thursday.
Mid to high level moisture will be around and result in more cloud
cover across the region through Thursday. Temperatures will average
in the mid 70s to low 80s to the 50s at night. A light northeast
wind will keep the southern Lake Ontario lakeshore a few degrees
cooler through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A rex block will maintain warm and dry weather this weekend across
the eastern Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will
continue Friday through Monday, however highs will be a few degrees
lower than our current stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A veil of cirrus level clouds will continue to spread northward
tonight and remain over the area much of Tuesday as upper level
moisture spreads north from a weak low drifting from the Carolinas
to the Mid Atlantic. Expect some patchy fog across the Southern Tier
river valleys and east of Lake Ontario again tonight through Tuesday
morning with local IFR. Similar to the past few nights, expect fog
to be limited to the KART terminal with all other terminals staying
VFR. Otherwise, VFR will continue to prevail Tuesday once the
morning fog burns off.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10
knots most of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock