Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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732 FXUS61 KBUF 192045 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 445 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. While this will continue to favor fair warm weather...a mid level disturbance may generate some showers over the western counties on Saturday. Looking further down the road...cooler and more widespread unsettled weather will finally return to the region for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... While there will be a couple stray sprinkles or very light showers across Chautauqua county into early this evening...high pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend to the southeast across our region through Friday night. This will all but guarantee continued fair warm weather...as daytime max temps will continue to average within a degree or two of 80. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Heading into Saturday, a broad mid-level trough will lie across much of the western two-thirds of the CONUS, while a ridge continues to lie across the Northeast. With the aforementioned trough, a shortwave trough will be in the midst pivoting northeast across the western and central Great Lakes. With this the surface ridge in place across the Northeast throughout much of the week will weaken some Saturday and allow for some precipitation and afternoon thunderstorms to drop southeast across western New York. While it doesn`t look like a complete wash out, expect a few hundredths across the Niagara Frontier with the best location for rain across the southern Tier with a little over a tenth of an inch possible. Surface high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will then drop southeast across the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday, supporting one more day of dry weather. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The pattern becomes more amplified next week with the eastern Great Lakes region under southwest flow between a trough centered across the Upper Mid-West and a ridge over New England. Unsettled weather is possible as moisture increases across the forecast area. The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward while a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Mid-West region Monday. There is low confidence in the place of low pressure ahead of the trough, however a southwest flow will likely increase moisture across the region Monday into Monday night. Shower chances increase from west to east by late Monday across western NY and across the entire region Monday night. Details become fuzzy Tuesday and on as certainty lowers with the evolution of another shortwave trough and the duration of a dry slot between systems. Looking at the ensemble means of the large scale pattern, the main trough should stay to the west of the forecast area, opening the door to increasing moisture and other organized systems moving from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region. Low to medium chances for showers continue Tuesday through Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible if favorable conditions come together. Temperatures remain slightly above normal next week with highs averaging in the low 70s across the lake plains to the upper 60s across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with light winds will persist through Friday. As has been the case for the past week or so...the exception to this will be across the western Southern Tier where early morning valley fog will support MVFR to IFR vsbys for a few hours at sites like KJHW and KELZ. There will also be some early morning fog on Friday at KART. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers over the western counties. Sunday...VFR, except for patchy early morning fog across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers over the western counties. Tuesday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers. && .MARINE... High pressure will largely remain in control through the first half of the weekend...though a weakening disturbance could produce some scattered showers across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario on Saturday. Winds through this time will generally be light to modest with minimal wave action...with northerly to northeasterly winds much of the time through Friday followed by northeasterlies to easterlies on Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...JJR