Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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175 FXUS61 KBUF 121756 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 156 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving off the East coast will provide us with fair dry weather through Thursday...along with a glimpse of warmer weather to come. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s on Thursday...then the passage of a cold front Thursday night will support some showers and possible thunderstorms while putting the brakes on our warm up for Friday and Saturday. Looking further ahead...mid summer warmth and humidity is guaranteed for early next week when apparent temperatures will soar into the 90s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave ridging will build across the region tonight...and this will guarantee fair dry weather with moonlit skies giving way to a bit of cirrus during the wee hours of the morning. It will not be as cool...particularly over the western counties where mins of 55 to 60 (nr 50 Lewis co) will be some 7-10 deg higher than those of the past few nights. Thursday will be noticeably warmer...as sfc based ridging along the East Coast will circulate H85 temps in the mid teens C across our forecast area. This will combine with sunshine through high clouds that will support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s F. The warm weather will be accompanied by a touch of humidity as well with many areas experiencing Td`s close to 60. A slow moving cold front will sag to the south through the area during the course of Thursday night. This will likely lead to some showers and possible thunderstorms...particularly east of both lakes where basin average rainfall could be as high as a quarter inch. Otherwise...basin average rainfall is forecast to generally be a tenth of an inch or less. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The pattern will amplify again across North America Thursday night and Friday, allowing a mid level trough to dig through Ontario and Quebec, with the southern edge of the trough crossing the Great Lakes and New England. Thursday night through Friday, DPVA and height falls will spread large scale ascent across the eastern Great Lakes in advance of the trough. An associated cold front will approach Thursday night, then cross the area early Friday. Forcing and a narrow axis of deeper moisture along and ahead of the trough axis will support a few areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the advancing cold front Thursday night through early Friday. Poor timing relative to the diurnal cycle and generally weak forcing will keep the chance of stronger convection low. Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast through the day Friday as drier and more stable air arrives behind the cold front. Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes Friday night, with associated dry air and subsidence allowing for a return to dry weather and partial clearing. The arrival of a cooler/drier airmass will allow temperatures to drop back into the low to mid 50s in most areas, with 40s for some of the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main story through the long term portion of the forecast will be building heat and humidity next week. The brief trough incursion over the Northeast Friday through Saturday will quickly fade as the longwave pattern across North America flips. A Pacific trough will move into the western CONUS early next week, forcing a strong downstream ridge to build across the central and eastern CONUS. The building ridge, along with persistent southwest low/mid level flow will pump heat and humidity into the Ohio Valley and New England starting Monday, and lasting much of next week. Relatively cool temperatures Saturday (highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s) will give way to mid-summer heat by Monday. Highs Monday through Tuesday will likely reach the lower 90s for lower elevations away from lake influences as 850MB temps climb to around +20C. The heat will likely last most of next week given the strength and breadth of the ridge. A southwest flow will likely keep the Buffalo area a little cooler most days, with the Rochester area into Central NY most likely to see numerous days of 90+ degree temperatures. Dewpoints will move upward into the 65-70 range with time, bringing a notable heat index by early next week. The westerlies will remain north and west of the area early next week, keeping the chances of convection low Monday through Tuesday with warm temperatures aloft likely providing an effective cap. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period. Sfc winds on Thursday will increase to 15 to 25 knots in most areas with gusts over 30 knots possible at both KBUF and KIAG. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday night through Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes resulting in light winds which will last through tonight. A cold front will then move across the Lower Great Lakes late Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front Thursday, with winds remaining elevated through Friday. This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes. High pressure will then build back across the waters with light winds and generally favorable boating conditions during the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Apffel/PP