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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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236 FXUS61 KBUF 292325 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 725 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a cold front which will move across the region late tonight. The passage of the front will bring in less humid conditions and drier weather. High pressure builds in on Monday with dry weather through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Early this evening, radar shows most of Western NY is rain-free, with the bulk of the showers and a few thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario. The widespread rainfall and cloud cover has diminished the severe weather risk today, but mesoscale guidance shows another batch of showers and storms moving through late this evening. There will be some instability in place tonight, with surface dew points still around 70F ahead of the front. Forecast wind profiles do not show quite as much shear as earlier today, but there remains at least some risk for some strong to severe storms late this evening into tonight. This system has also brought a soaking rainfall to much of Western NY with an average of 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall at many locations, with up to 2 inches at some. The Buffalo Airport easily broke the daily rainfall record with 1.64 inches of rain falling through 4 p.m. Will continue to monitor for any slow moving or training storms since areas which got heavy rainfall earlier today cannot handle much more. With the passage of the initial cold front it will become quite breezy Sunday, with increasingly more comfortable conditions due to the tumbling Td`s. Interestingly enough...our high temperatures are advertised to peak in the low to mid 70s by midday/early afternoon then slowly falling thereafter. This is unusual for this time of year... so this gives you a semblance of how strong the cold advection will be in the wake of the first cold front. MaxTs Sunday will generally be found in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dreary weather Sunday night as an upper level trough axis and secondary cold front pivot southeast through the eastern Great Lakes. With recently sampled lake temps near +21C, 850H temps bottoming out near +5C and northwesterly upslope flow coupled with weak difluence aloft will maintain a wealth of cloud cover and some scattered showers overnight. Will continue to hedge above blended guidance for sky/PoPs as it continues to be too aggressive with the overnight clearing and drying given the expected pattern. Greatest chances for any measurable precip will be earlier in the night east of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes region, while far western NY should begin clearing out very late in the night. Otherwise, insulation from the extra cloud cover should somewhat balance out with the chilly airmass and yield comfortable sleeping temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s possible across the hilltops. Excellent weather will then be in place as we move into the first day of July as a broad area of surface high pressure initially centered over the western Great Lakes Monday morning migrates east, being directly overhead by Monday night before shifting off the New Jersey coast by Tuesday evening. Temps aloft will already begin warming Monday, though given the cool start surface temps will likely only reach the upper 60s and low 70s under mostly sunny skies. Monday night will again be on the cool side owed to the clearer skies, with lows ranging from the upper 40s across the interior hilltops to mid 50s near the lakeshores. Mid/high clouds will increase through the day Tuesday out ahead of a warm front lifting through the Ohio Valley. Temps at the sfc and aloft will continue to warm on the western periphery of the surface high Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temps topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows ranging in the 60s respectively. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmer, unsettled weather returns to the forecast as we move later into the week. This comes as weak mid-level ridging shifts east of the Great lakes Wednesday as is replaced with nearly zonal flow aloft extending back toward the lower Midwest. Meanwhile, a weakening mid-level trough will trudge east across James Bay from northern Ontario to Quebec, causing several shortwave disturbances to ripple through the overhead zonal flow, bringing on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. The first of these opportunities for wet weather will arrive Wednesday afternoon. A large surface low attendant to the trough near James Bay will sag its elongated cold front southeastward across Ontario Province and towards the eastern Great Lakes. Diurnal convection will be possible during peak heating hours as the forecast area sits within the system`s warm sector. A more widespread round of showers and possibly a few additional thunderstorms is expected Wednesday night as the front moves through then stalls just south of the region, before the area dries out late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast uncertainty increases as we move further into Thursday and towards the weekend. Long range guidance is in general agreement on the stalled frontal boundary remaining to our south through Independence Day, with an area of subsidence drying extending across the forecast area from the upper Great Lakes. This being said, the GFS is much further north with the placement of the boundary than the ECMWF/CMCNH, both of which hint at some possible light diurnal shower activity developing. This is reflected in the forecast as low- end chances for showers (15-20%) in most areas Thursday afternoon and evening, with slightly better chances (~30%) across the Southern Tier in closer proximity to the boundary, where some thunderstorms may be possible as well. Thereafter, a compact shortwave racing across the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thursday night will take aim at the forecast area by Friday morning, followed by a larger surface low which will move across the Great Lakes Saturday. As is typical at this range, uncertainty is high in strength, timing, and track of these systems which will also likely be influenced by how they interact with the stalled boundary south of the area. Therefore have stuck close to deterministic NBMs Chc PoPs Friday through Saturday until details come into better focus. For temperatures this period...Summer`s warmth will return to the forecast area out ahead of the cold front Wednesday, with highs well into the 80s likely in most areas. Temperatures cool a few degrees with a bit less humidity by Thursday. Temperatures Friday will be similar, likely cooling a bit more to the upper 70s/low 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this evening, with lots of lingering low level moisture. Steady showers east of Lake Ontario will exit east late this evening, but another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along a cold front which is approaching from the northwest. These will bring localized MVFR or lower flight conditions. Increasing moisture with the cold front will also bring lower cigs in the MVFR/IFR flight category. Some fog is also possible, especially east of Lake Ontario and in the Southern Tier river valleys. Showers will taper off Sunday morning, and cigs will gradually lift and break up some. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions by Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the S. Tier. && .MARINE... Moderate south to southwest winds early this evening support small craft headlines for eastern Lake Erie and the Buffalo Harbor/Niagara River. Small craft headlines also in place for eastern Lake Ontario. Winds will diminish late this evening ahead of a cold front. The cold front will approach the region tonight...expect fresh to strong westerlies in the wake of a front on Sunday. This will likely lead to a fresh round of headlines for at least the eastern half of Lake Ontario...while choppy conditions will be found elsewhere. Looking further ahead...high pressure drifting across the region Monday and Tuesday will offer fine conditions for recreational boating with generally light winds and negligible waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/RSH SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...AR/Apffel MARINE...AR/Apffel/RSH