504
FXUS61 KBUF 231521
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1121 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will cross the Lower Great Lakes today,
bringing widespread showers to Western New York, with activity more
scattered east of Lake Ontario. Cloudy skies today will promote
temperatures much closer to early autumn normal. As a warm front
pushes across our region Tuesday night and Wednesday more widespread
rainfall will occur across the entire region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave trough is now pushing towards upstate New York, with
surface low pressure evident near the northeast Lake Erie
shoreline. This progress has pushed most of the shower activity
east of Erie/Cattaraugus Counties, with scattered activity
continuing in the central CWA, but a bit more concentrated
towards the eastern end of Lake Ontario. RAP-based mesoanalysis
still expects up to 300 J/kg of MLCAPE by afternoon, but given
lingering cloud cover, will continue to leave thunder out of the
forecast for now.

Overall, minor edits were made to the grids for today, as the
overall forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...

Rain showers will lighten and taper off through the late morning and
afternoon hours from west to east. The surface low will reside to
our west through tonight, within an inverted surface trough. There
may be a lingering shower or two with convergence and remaining low
level moisture within this inverted surface trough tonight, but
activity should be light considering a mid level ridge aloft will be
passing overhead.

Winds will remain from the southeast today and tonight. This
downslope flow will favor warmest areas near Lake Erie, across the
Lake Plain and also near the Saint Lawrence Valley. Here highs
around 70, and lower 70s for Buffalo and down the NYS Thruway
corridor along Lake Erie. Inland temperatures across the higher
terrain will remain in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will range from
the lower 50s on the Tug Hill, to mid 50s upper Genesee Valley to
around 60 closer to the Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deep longwave trough will advance from the Mississippi Valley
Tuesday towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Wednesday. The
trough will undergo an interesting evolution, with the sharp
northern stream portion moving east across Ontario Wednesday and
into Quebec by early Thursday. This feature, along with several
shortwaves will continue to produce active weather across our region
Tuesday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave digging
into the western portion of the trough Tuesday will be left behind
and evolve into a cutoff closed low over the south central US, where
it will meander within a building mid/upper level ridge through the
end of the week. Model and ensemble guidance is coming into better
agreement that this closed low will be too far away to influence our
weather later in the week.

Looking at the details, Tuesday morning the remnants of the first
shortwave may still be producing a few scattered showers across
Western and Central NY, but coverage of any rain will initially be
sparse in the morning. Later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
a shortwave ejecting northeast out of the mean longwave trough will
cross the Great Lakes, with a surface low tracking northeast across
lower Michigan late Tuesday to near Georgian Bay by early Wednesday.
Large scale forcing will increase ahead of this feature, supported
by diffluent mid/upper level flow and upper level jet support. A 35+
knot southerly low level jet will aid in transporting deep moisture
into the region. The combination of forcing and moisture will
support an area of widespread showers moving into Western NY later
Tuesday afternoon, then spreading across the entire area Tuesday
night. Limited instability may support some isolated embedded
thunder.

Wednesday, the mid level shortwave and low level features will
continue to move northeast and weaken with time. A baroclinic zone
will remain draped from the Appalachians to eastern NY, and model
guidance suggests another wave of low pressure may move along this
boundary later Wednesday through Wednesday night, maintaining a
higher chance of rain across eastern portions of the area.
Meanwhile, drier air will attempt to move into Western NY,
supporting decreasing rain chances by Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night.

Thursday, the northern stream trough will dig from Quebec into New
England. Associated forcing and deeper moisture may clip the eastern
Lake Ontario region, where the best chance of showers will be found.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure and associated drier air and
subsidence will build into the Great Lakes, allowing mainly dry
weather to return to Western NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A much drier pattern is shaping up for Friday through next weekend
in the past few runs of operational and ensemble guidance. An
expansive mid level low will continue to spin through the south
central CONUS, with another mid level closed low moving from the
Canadian Maritimes into the North Atlantic over the weekend. A
strong mid/upper level ridge will build over the Great Lakes between
these two systems, with associated dry air and subsidence supporting
dry weather Friday through Sunday. The dry airmass will support cool
nights and warm afternoons, with high temperatures running a little
above average.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 15Z, a cold front is currently situated west of BUF/IAG
and a warm front is lingering just south of KART and producing
light to moderate rain.

There is a ton of variability in the TAFs when it comes to
restrictions depending on the plume of low-level moisture and
if areas have received rain or not. Northern NY is still
experiencing VFR (with lower dew points) while KJHW has been
battling low cigs and prevailing LIFR.

Hi-Res guidance suggests elevated probabilities (above 50%)
LIFR to IFR conditions around KJHW through 17Z to 18Z.

Elsewhere, the probability of MVFR conditions across the region
are elevated (above 60%) through late this evening and into
early Tuesday morning. As well as restrictions, isolated rain
showers/drizzle can`t be ruled out in the vicinity of terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday...IFR to MVFR cigs over the western counties in scattered
showers and thunderstorms, but mainly VFR and dry east of Lake
Ontario.
Wednesday...IFR to lower end MVFR region-wide with the
likelihood of more showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...MVFR with scattered showers...mainly east of Lake
Ontario.
Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be from the southeast today and tonight. These southeast
winds will approach 20 knots over the offshore waters of eastern
Lake Ontario...with waves around four to five feet rolling into the
Canadian waters today.

This cold front will stall just to the west of the Lower Great
Lakes, with a south to southeast flow maintained over the Lake
waters through Wednesday. Eventually this cold front will push
eastward, with winds veering to a westerly flow Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...CL/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas/Hefferan
MARINE...Thomas