309
FXUS65 KBYZ 230819
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
219 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tuesday night...

A shortwave trough will be shifting through the region today as
it drops out of Canada and into the high plains. Analysis early
this morning showed an associated front in central Montana moving
southeastward. Look for considerable cloudiness spreading over the
area. A few sprinkles are possible over our western and central
zones in the early morning hours...which may include a few
isolated showers (with precip < 0.03) as it reaches our east this
morning, further from the downslope effects. Some breaks in the
clouds should then develop this afternoon as the shortwave trough
departs. Winds will turn northwesterly in most areas as this
system moves through with gusts 20-30 mph locally through much of
the day before decreasing in the evening. High temps today will be
in the 70-75 range at most locations.

Ridging kicks in Tuesday with anti-cyclonic flow returning and
keeping us dry. Temps will climb to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s
the next couple of nights. BT

Wednesday through Monday...

A quiescent weather pattern will prevail through much of the
extended forecast period. Upper level ridging will bring warm and
dry conditions into next weekend, with the warmest days being
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will climb into the 80s
and even low 90s, with warmer temperatures forecasted for the
south and east. Between Baker, Billings, Livingston, Miles City,
and Sheridan, only Sheridan has a forecasted high that is within
5F of a daily record for Wednesday, September 25. That record is
94F, set in 2015. Ensembles depict a flattening of the ridge,
late Thursday, giving way to a more SW-W flow pattern aloft. The
current forecast has a slight cool down from this flow shift, on
Friday, with temperatures in the 80s.

Ensembles generally show a continuation of uneventful through
next weekend, with temperatures in the upper 60s to 80F and
little to no chance for precipitation. Matos

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. A low chance (15%) for
isolated showers is possible in southeast MT this morning. Winds
will become breezy between 15z to 18z, with gusts to 20-30 kt
range, with the strongest gusts in SE MT. Winds will begin to
diminish around 00z. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 051/080 053/087 057/087 051/082 052/077 048/071
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
LVM 073 045/082 049/087 053/083 046/082 046/078 043/074
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
HDN 074 047/080 049/089 052/090 050/084 048/079 046/073
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 073 048/080 052/089 057/088 052/084 053/079 048/075
    2/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 072 048/078 050/089 059/091 053/086 054/081 050/080
    2/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 071 043/077 049/086 054/089 049/083 050/080 046/077
    2/W 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 073 044/080 047/092 052/091 049/087 048/081 046/079
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings