Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
323 FXUS65 KBYZ 242104 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 304 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Wednesday night... Winds will be on a downward trend throughout the day today as the upper level ridge continues to move to the east. Tomorrow, we will be centered under the ridge axis leading to temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. These temperatures are 15-20 degrees above average with the ECMWF EFI showing values of 0.8 to even 0.99 for parts of our southeastern CWA, the latter indicating highly anomalous temperatures. MinRH values for most of the region will be in the 20s, however, locations in the southeast will see RH values in the teens. HREF is currently giving a 20-50% chance for RH <20 and wind gust >25mph for parts of Sheridan and Powder River Counties. Hot Dry Windy Index is showing high confidence in values exceeding 95th percentile. This combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to critical fire conditions for these locations. Dry conditions are expected over the short term with clear skies. Torgerson Thursday through Tuesday... Warm and dry conditions associated with upper level ridging will continue, Thursday. High temperatures are forecasted to be 10-20F above normal across the area, in the 80s to near 90F. The warmest temperatures and poorest relative humidities are forecasted in the south and east (including Sheridan County). A weak frontal passage will increase winds, Thursday afternoon, with gusts in the 10s-20s mph possible into the evening hours. The combination of low RH values and increased winds, along with minimal rainfall for the SE, brings some concern for fire weather conditions. Keep any eye out for this as we progress through the week. Friday through Saturday, above normal temperatures will persist, with highs in the 70s and 80s. The chance for precipitation remains very unlikely (less than 15%). Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Tuesday with NBM 10th to 90th percentile in high temperature at Billings ranging from the 60s to 80s Sunday and 50s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Around half of the ensemble members are showing a 500 mb ridge over our area (with warmer temperatures) while the other half show more troughing (with cooler temperatures). In terms of precipitation, little is expected at this time as even in the trough scenarios, precipitation amounts are light, generally less than 0.15 inches. Matos/RMS && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will begin to pick up across much of the area tomorrow morning with winds gusting into the 20s to near 30kts. Otherwise, clear skies and dry conditions will prevail. Matos/Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 056/090 058/084 051/084 052/079 050/082 047/066 042/072 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U LVM 052/088 053/082 048/083 047/079 047/084 042/068 037/077 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/U HDN 051/092 053/084 049/085 048/082 048/084 044/066 039/072 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U MLS 053/091 056/083 052/085 052/082 055/083 047/064 040/069 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 4BQ 052/094 059/088 050/088 052/084 055/087 048/067 041/070 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 10/U BHK 050/089 055/084 047/086 050/082 050/083 045/067 037/067 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B 00/U SHR 048/094 053/090 049/088 049/084 049/087 044/068 037/075 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONE 131. WY...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONE 274. && $$ weather.gov/billings