Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
909 FXUS65 KBYZ 222026 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 226 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Monday night... A shortwave trough at 500 mb will move east/southeastward over southern Canada into the Dakotas tonight into Monday. The shortwave trough will spread clouds into southern MT/northern WY this evening into Monday morning. Some breaks in the clouds should then develop Monday afternoon as the shortwave trough departs. A few sprinkles are possible after midnight over most of the area and then isolated showers are possible (15% chance) mainly in southeast MT Monday morning to early afternoon. Soundings show a relatively deeper moist layer in southeast MT and hence the isolated shower chance there Monday morning. The shortwave will also bring a surface cold front across the area in the early morning hours Monday with winds turning northwesterly in most areas. Winds will become breezy by late morning with gusts to 25-30 mph and stay breezy through Monday evening. Winds should decrease Monday night with the loss of solar heating. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s tonight and Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will mainly be in the 70s. RMS Tuesday through Sunday... Benign weather will persist for much of the extended forecast period. Warmer than normal temperatures associated with upper ridging will be the main story. High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s, Wednesday and Thursday. Models are hinting that a cold front may pass through the region, Thursday afternoon. The result of this would be a slight cooldown for Friday. Uncertainty increases for next weekend with some model clusters showing 500 mb ridging dominating while other clusters showing more of a 500 mb trough scenario. The NBM 10th to 90th percentile of high temperatures at Billings ranges from the 50s to the 80s Saturday and Sunday. Next chance of precipitation is Sunday afternoon-evening at 15-20% if the trough scenario were to occur. Matos/RMS && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Isolated showers are possible (15% chance) in southeast MT on Monday from 12z to 18z and east of KMLS through about 20z. Winds will become breezy Monday morning with gusts to 20-26 kt, strongest in southeast MT, then decrease Monday evening. There will be areas of mountain obscuration Monday and in the Bighorn Mountains Monday evening. RMS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/073 050/079 053/086 056/085 053/083 050/073 046/071 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B LVM 044/072 044/081 049/086 052/084 048/083 044/074 040/070 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/B HDN 047/074 046/080 049/088 051/088 051/086 047/075 044/073 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U MLS 049/072 047/078 052/088 055/087 054/086 052/074 046/072 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 4BQ 048/071 048/077 050/088 057/089 054/088 053/077 047/074 02/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U BHK 046/071 043/078 048/086 053/087 051/085 050/075 043/071 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B SHR 044/072 043/079 047/090 052/089 049/087 047/076 043/076 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings