103
FXUS65 KBYZ 231950
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
150 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday night...

The short term period will be defined by rising heights with a
return to above average temperatures. Tomorrow will see
temperatures near 80 degrees across the region. With average highs
at our climate sites ranging from 69-72, these temperatures are
near 10 degrees above average. Tomorrow will feature clear skies
and calm winds leading to a pleasant day. Torgerson

Wednesday through Monday....

Main forecast concerns are on high temperatures and timing of a
ridge break down later this week along with a frontal passage.

High forecast confidence regarding a building ridge across the
western CONUS through Wednesday.  There is very little spread in the
NBM guidance for high temperatures on Wednesday at KBIL with only a 2
degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles with values
of 85 degrees and 87 degrees respectively.  There is also high
confidence in dry conditions (very unlikely for any precipitation)
through at least Thursday) with no ensemble members indicating
precipitation. The ridge looks to break down early on Thursday as a
trough approaches the region from the Pacific Northwest.  Late
Wednesday through Thursday will be the period to watch for
increasing winds in the foothills areas as the pressure gradient
increases. Flow aloft then switches to a more zonal flow pattern,
but this will all be determined by how tropical cyclone Nine (could
become a major hurricane) and trough diving into the southern
Mississippi River Valley interact.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. Clouds will start to
dissipate the rest of today through the overnight leading to clear
skies tomorrow. Gusty winds this afternoon will begin to decrease
this evening leading to calm conditions tomorrow. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/080 054/088 057/083 050/082 051/079 051/074 043/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/B
LVM 045/082 050/088 052/081 047/082 047/080 046/074 039/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/W
HDN 047/081 050/091 052/085 049/083 049/081 048/077 041/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/B
MLS 048/079 053/091 056/084 051/084 052/082 052/076 044/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B
4BQ 048/078 052/091 058/090 052/086 052/084 052/079 044/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 044/078 049/088 054/085 048/084 050/083 048/077 042/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 045/080 048/093 052/090 048/086 049/084 046/081 039/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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