837
FXUS65 KBYZ 240830
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
230 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday night...

Current radar showing thunderstorms exiting Custer and Fallon
counties this morning. 700 mb frontogenesis over Northern Rosebud
and Treasure counties is initiating isolated showers tracking and
generally weakening east. The shortwave to our north from this
past evening is breaking down ridging that will transition into
westerly flow today. West winds of 25-35 mph will mix out over
the western foothills this afternoon and evening. Energy in the
low levels will pass over higher terrain Monday afternoon bringing
low PoPs to the mountains (25-35% chance). A few CAMs try to
bring some isolated showers off the mountains Monday evening, but
with instability trending downward after 6 pm, isolated, high-
based showers are most likely. Precip chances are better for far
SE MT with a low level jet forming over NE WY and NW SD Monday
evening (15-25% chance). Overall, conditions will remain warm and
dry in the in the short term with highs in the 80s to low 90s and
lows in the 50s and 60s. TS


Wednesday through Sunday...

Ridge axis shifting east over the area on Wednesday will allow
temperatures to warm into the middle 80s to lower 90s. Troughing
over the West Coast will begin influencing our area as flow backs
and energy and moisture begin advecting in from the southwest
during the afternoon and evening. Currently, there is a low
chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms (20-40%,
highest over the mountains). Southeasterly flow in the lower
levels will transport instability and moisture (PWATs greater
than an inch) into the area. A few stronger storms look possible,
with plenty of moisture to work with.

Shower/thunderstorm chances increase (30-70%) on Thursday as an
upper trough and associated low move from the Pac NW into the
northern Rockies bringing additional energy. Again, there is
likely enough instability over the region to bring a risk of
strong/severe storms over portions of the area. Highs on Thursday
look to range from the upper 70s over the west to the 90s over
the east. Shower and thunderstorm chances stay in the forecast for
Friday as ensembles prog the upper low to slide east across the
MT/Canada border. With lower heights, highs in the 60s to
middle 70s are forecast for Friday. Latest NBM probabilities for
0.25 inches or more of precipitation for Thursday and Friday range
from 10-30%, highest over the western mountains and foothills.
Locally high precipitation totals can be expected with convection.
Ridging builds back over the region for the weekend bringing
mainly dry conditions and temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s on
Saturday, with 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms VC KBHK will gradually shift
east into the Dakotas by 10Z this morning. VFR can be expected
through most of today with passing mid and high clouds. A weak
disturbance moving through the region may bring isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the southern mountains and
foothills after 21Z this afternoon, spreading east into far
southeast MT tonight. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/087 058/090 063/090 055/072 048/079 054/088
    1/U 10/U    00/B    24/T    42/W    10/U    02/T
LVM 089 051/088 053/087 058/083 046/071 043/078 050/085
    1/N 10/U    02/T    26/T    42/T    10/U    13/T
HDN 089 056/087 056/093 061/094 054/074 047/081 053/091
    1/U 10/U    10/B    23/T    41/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 086 057/086 057/089 065/093 057/073 048/077 056/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    23/T    51/N    10/U    11/U
4BQ 088 060/087 057/091 066/096 057/075 048/079 057/093
    0/U 10/U    01/U    22/T    41/U    10/U    11/U
BHK 085 054/085 052/086 061/092 055/073 045/075 051/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    23/T    61/N    10/U    12/W
SHR 092 056/087 055/091 060/093 052/074 044/081 053/093
    1/U 10/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    10/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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