108
FXUS65 KBYZ 140758
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
158 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday Night...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move through the region this afternoon and evening,
with a few possibly becoming strong to severe. The main threat is
strong and erratic winds, but isolated hail is also possible,
especially in far south-eastern Montana. Remember: When Lightning
Roars, Go Indoors!

Ahead of this activity, a few light showers/sprinkles are
possible this morning, especially close to the mountains and
foothills (10-20% chance). While this activity will spread clouds
across portions the area, there should be enough breaks in the
cloud cover to allow the surface to warm and destabilize through
the day. With this, high temperatures are expected to be warm with
readings in the 80s to lower 90 degrees F. By this afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms look to initiate in both south-eastern
Montana (around Powder River and Carter counties) and south-
central Montana (west of Billings). These showers and
thunderstorms will spread east through the evening hours. As
mentioned above, the main threat will be strong and erratic winds
across the entire area. The hail threat is more focused to far
south-eastern Montana where the better instability will be in
place. All this is in line with the day 1 outlook from SPC, which
has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the majority of
south central and eastern Montana. With all that said, make sure
to stay weather aware today.

After today`s activity, additional showers, with a rumble of
thunder or two, look to spread across western zones (west of
Billings) late tonight into Saturday morning (15-30% chance).

Saturday is expected to be another warm day with high
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s once again. With this,
moderate diurnal instability looks to develop. This, combined with
a cold front passage Saturday evening, will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop once again, mainly east and north of
Billings. Wind and hail will be the main threats with this
activity, and this is reflected in the day 2 outlook from SPC
which has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas east
of Billings and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for areas in
northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. The frontal passage
Saturday evening will also bring gusty northwest winds to the
surface, with 20-40 mph wind gusts common. Arends

Sunday through Thursday...

Upper low tracks across southern Canada and tightens the upper
level heights over our area, increasing jet level winds. Downslope
winds mix down in this pattern and bring dry conditions, but with
lowered heights in general temperatures should be 10 degrees or
so lower than Saturdays forecast highs.

Unsettled conditions arrive Monday and continue into Thursday as
an upper level trof drops into the area and sticks around for a
while. This pattern taps into several surges of plains moisture
and wraps them into the area for the potential of widespread
precipitation. NBM precipitation spreads remain very broad at this
time based on the various upper low tracks. The 10th-90th spreads
are almost 2 inches for central and western zones for 72hr
precipitation totals, and the probs for an inch or more of
precipitation are generally in the 30 to 50 percent range.

Snow levels drop from around 9kft Monday to under 7kft by Tuesday
morning. Snow totals for the highest elevations of the western
mountains are running 6 to 10 inches, with around an inch for the
Bighorn mountains Monday-Wednesday. However these totals will be
determined by precipitation amounts which as noted above still
have some serious spread (uncertainty). So, expect these values to
change as the forecast progresses and we dial in the storm track
and resulting precipitation placement.

Temperatures will drop from the 70s on Sunday into the 50s and 60s
for Monday and Tuesday, climbing back toward 70 degrees on
Wednesday. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s at night, with 20s
in the mountains.

If you have outdoor plans for the early to middle part of next
week be prepared for inclimate weather, and in the higher
foothills/mountains expect a lean toward wintry weather. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through noon Friday. After that a
couple of areas of scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop. One will move out of the western mountains between 18-21z
and spread east through the late afternoon hours. The second will
develop over SE Montana around 20z and slowly shift east into the
Dakotas by 23-00z. Wind gusts of 40 to 50kts will be the main
threat with storms today, with SE Montana storms also having a
hail threat. Local MVFR conditions can be expected near
precipitation areas, especially east of Rosebud County. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 057/086 050/072 049/061 045/061 042/070 047/077
    3/T 31/U    10/U    37/T    86/W    32/T    12/W
LVM 087 052/078 039/068 041/058 038/056 035/066 040/074
    5/T 33/T    20/B    48/T    87/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 090 056/089 049/074 049/066 045/062 040/071 045/079
    3/T 31/U    20/B    46/T    86/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 092 062/089 051/072 049/063 048/061 042/069 048/077
    1/B 41/U    40/U    46/T    86/W    32/W    22/W
4BQ 092 060/092 052/073 051/066 048/064 042/071 048/078
    2/T 41/U    20/U    54/W    74/W    32/W    22/T
BHK 089 057/089 050/072 046/063 046/062 041/068 046/077
    2/T 41/U    50/U    54/W    85/W    32/W    22/T
SHR 090 054/090 045/074 046/069 043/064 037/068 043/077
    3/T 21/B    10/U    45/T    74/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings