906
FXUS65 KBYZ 202005
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
205 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday night...

A few showers had developed N of the forecast area, ahead of the
approaching cold front this afternoon. Also, GLM and echo strength
supported isolated thunder. Added a small PoP across the northern
tier from 18Z-21Z, then kept the rest of the afternoon and
evening PoPs as they were from the earlier update. A few snow
showers are possible in the high elevations of the Beartooths.
Front still forecast to dive through the area from 21Z-00Z,
accompanied by gusty winds that will continue into tonight. Nudged
the gusts up toward the NBM 90th percentile based on what the
ECMWF meteograms were showing. Had localized patchy fog in the
forecast tonight through early Saturday. Cyclonic flow aloft on
Sat. will push E during the day. PWAT`s were low, so kept the
forecast dry. It will be cooler behind the front with highs in the
60s. Winds will be gusty E of KBIL under the stronger flow aloft.
Weak ridging will keep dry weather over the area Sat. night. HRRR
had some patchy fog over KSHR. Arthur

Sunday through Thursday...

Main forecast concerns next week are on precipitation chances Sunday
night into Monday then drying out with warming temperatures next
week.

The next weather system to pass through the region will be Sunday
night into Monday as a trough and cold front sweep through the area.
This system will bring medium chances for rain to the region along
with some snow for higher elevations. This system quickly exits the
area Monday afternoon then ridging builds in. WPC clusters continue
to indicate high confidence in ridging building over portions of the
western CONUS producing warmer and drier conditions for the region.
There is a 67 percent chance that highs will reach or exceed 75
degrees at Billings on Thursday with probabilities increasing to 78
percent on Friday. The ridge looks to break down later on Thursday
so will have to keep an on this period for timing of the frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
sweeps through the region late this afternoon into tonight bringing
sct-bkn clouds with bases in the 4kft-7kft range. Isolated rain
showers are also possible. Surface high pressure returns by
Saturday morning with quiet weather expected the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/061 040/073 051/068 045/072 048/080 052/081 052/080
    20/U    00/U    13/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 034/063 034/075 043/067 040/074 044/081 047/080 047/079
    00/U    00/U    24/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 041/062 036/074 045/069 042/073 044/082 048/082 047/081
    20/U    00/U    03/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 044/062 039/072 046/071 045/071 046/080 051/081 050/081
    20/U    00/U    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 044/061 038/073 045/070 045/071 046/080 052/082 051/083
    20/U    00/U    02/W    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 042/061 036/071 043/071 042/071 044/079 049/080 048/080
    20/B    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 039/063 034/075 042/068 040/073 042/083 046/083 047/082
    20/U    00/U    03/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings