704
FXUS62 KCAE 231843
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next
several days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
occur each afternoon and evening, with better rain chances likely
toward the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE:

- Heat continues to build today with max heat indices between
  100-105F.

Cumulus continue to build as the remains of the tropical wave
move through the CHS area and will move northeastward through
tonight. Dry air in the mid and upper level continues to
suppress convection in the eastern Midlands and toward the coast
while moistening upper levels over the western Midlands and
northern CSRA are resulting in showers and thunderstorms
developing. Temperatures are also pushing into the low and mid
90s with heat index values around 100. With another few degrees
of warming expect most locations in the mid and upper 90s this
afternoon with heat index values up to 105. Through the
remainder of the afternoon expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue developing however with little upper
level support the potential for severe weather remains low
however some gusty winds around thunderstorms will be possible.
With sunset the convection will diminish however a few cells
could continue into the late evening hours. Overnight a frontal
boundary will move toward the area from the northwest and is
expected to arrive toward daybreak Monday. Models continue to
weaken this feature as it moves into the area and without
daytime heating to aid it do not anticipate any showers or
thunderstorms. With partly to mostly cloudy skies expected
overnight and increasing clouds toward daybreak overnight lows
will be in the mid 70s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough over the Great Lakes will deepen and move east into New
England on Monday. A weak pre-frontal trough may bring a few showers
to the area ahead of the main boundary in association with an axis
of higher moisture. This moisture will be mostly above the surface,
as dewpoints won`t take too much of a hit just yet. The boundary may
stall somewhere across the central part of the state, where
additional convection may initiate Monday afternoon mainly to the
east in response to strong daytime heating. As the upper trough
finally pushes through, downsloping is progged to cool dewpoints off
into the 60s, or perhaps upper 50s toward the upstate Monday evening
into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot with high temps in the
mid to upper 90s. With afternoon dewpoints in the 60s, max heat
indices are forecast around 105 degrees. For areas fortunate enough
to get a shower or thunderstorm, temperatures could be slightly
cooler. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
mainly east of the I-95 corridor, mainly for gusty winds with dry
air aloft. Any convection should diminish in the evening with
overnight low temps in the low 70s.

Best moisture remains relegated to the eastern CWA on Tuesday with
that lingering boundary still not ready to move out. With lower
dewpoints, head indices are expected to remain below or perhaps
right at 100 despite highs in the mid to upper 90s. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may occur mainly southeast of I-20 where
the best moisture will be. Another night of mild lows with
temperatures in the low 70s as diurnally driven convection
dissipates.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another upper trough moves through on Wednesday with high pressure
aloft building back over the region late in the week. The associated
front is expected to weaken a bit as it crosses the Appalachians,
but there should still be an increased risk for showers and
thunderstorms, at least compared to earlier in the week. Best rain
chances appear to be Thursday and Thursday night, but it should be
mentioned that the timing of the front remains in question, so there
is low confidence regarding any severe weather threat. Outside of
this feature, scattered diurnally driven convection is expected each
afternoon with the heat continuing to be a nuisance; highs in the
upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will also be mild in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period with
brief restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Cumulus have developed into scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the area and with a few more hours of heating expect
additional cells to develop. Coverage remains limited so have
only included VCSH at AGS/DNL due to cells nearby. Will continue
to monitor and add at additional terminals as needed. Convection
will diminish with sunset however a few thunderstorms could
linger into the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak
frontal boundary will move into the area from the northwest
toward daybreak. This feature appears dry so do not have any
mention of showers or thunderstorms with passage. Clouds will be
increasing during the early morning so do not expect fog to
develop.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$