852
FXUS62 KCAE 150008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with gradually
increasing moisture into early next week with high pressure off
the mid Atlantic Coast. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and
evening convection possible through the middle of next week.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s
throughout much of the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Expect clear skies overnight ahead of a cold front approaching
from the north. The front won`t move into the forecast area
until the morning. The dry airmass ahead of the front will
prevent rainfall through the near term forecast period. Winds
will be light or calm overnight with lows generally in the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be the hottest day of the weekend before a weak
cold front pushes into the region from the north and then stalls
out somewhere across the southern cwa Saturday night. Meanwhile
aloft, a building upper ridge will begin moving across the area
into Sunday. Moisture remains limited ahead of the front for
much of the cwa. Exception may be across the very southern and
southeastern counties where there may be enough low-level
moisture that advects inland from the coast to produce isolated
showers or storms late in the afternoon Saturday. The bigger
issue Saturday will actually be the afternoon temperatures. Even
with the front coming through most guidance has high
temperatures clustered in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index
values around 100 are expected. Saving grace to the heat index
readings is that the airmass will be relatively dry and RH
values will be reasonable. If you must be outside for extended
periods, be sure to take frequent breaks, hydrate well, and find
shade as much as possible.

Front stalls across the south by Sunday. Any isolated afternoon
rainfall potential will be confined to the southern Midlands and
CSRA during the afternoon hours, with the remainder of the
forecast area remaining on the dry side. Upper ridge continues
to build. There will be a slight increase in moisture and clouds
as winds turn more easterly. This should allow slightly cooler
temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the lower to middle
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge pattern will remain across the eastern US through
the period. Much of the period will continue to be on the dry
side, with maybe isolated late afternoon convection possible
across the eastern cwa closer to the coastal plain each day.
Confidence in any rainfall though is very low through the
period. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal in the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR forecast.

High pressure across the area. Afternoon is dissipating quickly.
Expect clear sky overnight. Guidance suggests fog threat very
low. Winds will be near calm through early morning. A weak cold
front/trough will move into the area Saturday morning and become
diffuse across the area. Expect winds to shift to favor north
or northeast 5 to 10 knots but south of CAE winds more likely to
be light and variable. The models are indicating widely
scattered showers will develop near the front, focused from near
AGS to OGB around 17z-18z Saturday. The sea breeze may enhance
some showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, scattered to broken
high based cumulus expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms are possible Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$