921
FXUS62 KCAE 221843
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected today through the middle
of next week. Heat Advisories may be possible from Monday
through Wednesday. Expect scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms for much of the short and long term forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms
  possible in the SE portion of the forecast area.

Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s across
the area and with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat
index values are around 100 degrees. Expect the heat index
values to remain near 100 degrees through the remainder of the
afternoon then begin falling this evening as the sun angle
lowers. CAE WSR-88D shows showers across the southeastern
Midlands and southern CSRA associated with moisture from the
tropical wave moving through far southeastern GA. With dry air
remaining along and north of I-20 showers which move toward the
Midlands are quickly dissipating. This will continue as the dry
air will remain in place through tonight resulting in the
showers and any thunderstorms dissipating with sunset with the
exception being a couple showers in the far southeastern
Midlands and southern CSRA. Overnight stratus will develop which
will keep overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A northwest flow aloft is expected early next week with a strong
upper level trough moving through New England and high pressure
aloft over the Southern Plains and Mid South. Downsloping off the
Appalachian Mountains should limit the diurnal convective potential
and also lead to hot daytime temperatures due to compression.

The competing factor is tropical moisture advected into the region
from an easterly wave. The best chance for convection should be near
the sea breeze front in the lower CSRA and eastern Midlands. The 12Z
CAMS do not depict anything more than isolated coverage and dry
air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.

Highs are forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each
day with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices are expected to
be in the 100 to 105 degree range during peak heating each day which
is just below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Southeast U.S. during the middle
of next week. An upper level trough passes well to the north of the
region in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame which pushes a
surface front into the Carolinas. There is a good probability that
this front becomes diffuse over the region given the late June
climatology and the ensemble forecasts. Thursday appears to be the
most likely day to experience a higher chance of diurnal convection
due to this diffuse frontal boundary. Otherwise isolated to
scattered diurnal convection is anticipated through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions expected during the early morning and sunrise
hours.

Moisture from the tropical wave continues to move into the OGB
area and struggles to reach the remaining TAF sites. This trend
will continue with VCSH at OGB over the next several hours and
dry conditions elsewhere. Main concern for the period will be
the development of stratus during the early morning and sunrise
hours. With stratus having developed last night and additional
moisture moving into the area have included MVFR to IFR cigs at
all terminals with the lowest conditions expected at OGB and
AGS. Fog is not expected due to development of stratus. Cigs
will return to VFR by mid morning as mixing increases with
cumulus again developing from late morning through the end of
the period. There is potential for showers and thunderstorms
near the end of the period however have not included mention as
coverage will be limited at that time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$