538
FXUS62 KCAE 052357
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
757 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper disturbance moving through the region will continue
to generate scattered thunderstorms through early tonight. A
cold front will move across the Southeast Thursday increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier air follows the
front late this week into the weekend. Another cold front
possible early next week, with rain potential increasing ahead
of it late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms have marched across
the forecast area this afternoon and evening with convective
intensity finally weakening. Ongoing convection moving through
the western Midlands is associated with a short wave and will
continue generating some convection due to the enhanced dynamics
aloft. Most areas have already had one or two rounds of
convection cross the area which has greatly reduced temperatures
and stabilized the atmosphere so expect the convective intensity
through the remainder of the evening and overnight to remain
weak. Overnight there will be limited instability so outflow
boundaries which intersect could generate some new cells. With
debris cloudiness expected for most of the night overnight lows
will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to be located over the
Southeast Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front that is
associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes is anticipated to
be near the Tennessee River Valley in the morning. Both of these
features are forecast to move eastward through the day, bringing the
chance for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area after a lull in the action in the morning. Latest hi-res
guidance continues a downward trend in the precipitation chances
through the day. However, I suspect there will be remnant boundaries
from the convection that occurs today, which could be triggers for
development. So, still think there`s a medium chance (30-50%) of
showers and storms to develop. PWATs are expected to remain high
ahead of the cold front, leading to the potential for heavy
downpours at times. Forecast soundings show that the temperature
will likely be an inverted V, which is indicative of a threat for
strong winds. While the severe threat overall is low for any storms
Thursday, some of the stronger storms could produce some stronger
winds (>40 mph) and small hail. The cold front is expected to pass
through the area during the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier air is expected to be ushered in behind the cold front for
Friday and through at least the first half of the weekend, which
leads to high confidence (80%) in fair weather for Friday and
Saturday. Some uncertainty begins to settle into the forecast
beginning on Sunday into early next week as models indicate a front
is forecast to slide south, bringing some chances for more rain.
There are some significant differences in the model solutions with
this feature as well as an upper level low, resulting in low
confidence in the forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning
stratus.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly work
across the forecast area, impacting the TAF sites on their way.
Showers are expected to diminish across the Augusta TAF sites
over the next hour, with more approaching the Orangeburg site
over the next couple hours. Any heavier shower or storm will be
capable of brief visibility restrictions, with the most likely
site to see this being OGB. These should continue to push
eastward as the evening progresses with more stable air settling
in after 03z and diminishing coverage. The shortwave driving
this is expected to slowly push across the area and make for an
interesting forecast tonight. Guidance is much more bullish on
ceiling restrictions later tonight behind this feature, with
HRRR, NBM, and RAP guidance all forecasting 1500-2000 kft
stratus at the Columbia sites. Thinking this is reasonable given
the subsidence behind the shortwave trough; though, it isn`t a
home run forecast. CAE/CUB are most likely to see it develop
but can`t rule it out anywhere else. It should remain stratus,
with the usual caveat that AGS is a fog prone site, as a strong
low- level jet is likely to develop again tonight. As we get
into the day on Thursday, a cold front will approach and winds
are expected to get fairly gusty by the afternoon hours. Expect
another round of showers and storms to potentially develop ahead
of this.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...