237
FXUS62 KCAE 111802
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
202 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air spreads into the region through mid-week as high
pressure builds in from the north. Generally dry air is expected
to remain in place through much of the week, with moisture only
beginning to really increase again by the weekend or early next
week. Hot temperatures are expected by Friday and Saturday as
ridging aloft increases in strength.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Drier air continues to filter into the forecast area this
afternoon with PWATs below 1 inch across the entire CWA except
our extreme southeast. Despite the decreased moisture, scattered
clouds have formed across much of the region but these are
fair-weather cumulus and are unlikely to develop further.
Temperatures continue to warm and are on track to reach the mid
to upper 80s north and west and upper 80s to around 90 degrees
south and east. The cumulus should clear out this evening
however high clouds associated with an approaching trough should
build in from the west tonight. In addition, areas of lower
clouds could creep into the southeastern Midlands and CSRA
towards daybreak though their coverage should not be widespread
given the aforementioned cirrus. Lows tonight will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather is expected during the middle part of
the work week. A mid-level trough is forecast to swing out of
the area by Wednesday but be followed up by a weaker,
positively tilted 500 hPa trough pushing in through Thursday.
Moisture is limited with this as PWs are expected to be below
normal both days, so only fair weather cumulus and thin upper
level clouds are expected either day. Soundings are not
favorable for any significant weather, so expect fairly seasonal
highs in the low 90s across the region. This should be fairly
bearable, with surface dewpoints mixing down into the low to mid
60s in the afternoon hours and keeping heat index values fairly
low. Lows overnight should fall into the mid or upper 60s for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

==============================
KEY MESSAGES
==============================

First bout of relatively intense heat of the year is expected
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be 96F-99F,
with heat index values over 100F possible. Aside from this,
typical summertime weather is expected Sunday-Tuesday of the
long term, with moisture increasing and leading to daily chance
for showers and storms.

==============================
DISCUSSION
==============================

A weak, diffuse front is likely to approach on Friday being
driven east-southeastward by a trough swinging through the Great
Lakes and northeastern US. Ahead of this, dry air will be in
place across the southeast and Carolinas, fostered by subsidence
aloft on the western side of the departing trough into the
Atlantic. Subsidence inversion aloft is likely on both Friday
and Saturday, with rising heights aiding in forcing that as
well. By Saturday evening, 500 hPa heights are expected to be
above normal and near the 590dm range. This should yield very
warm 850 hPa and surface temps both days, with highs in the
upper 90s. Even with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s
each afternoon, both LREF and NBM show good probabilities of
peak heat index values exceeding 100F during the afternoon
hours. As this is the first real heat of the year, be sure to
remember to take frequent breaks if you have outdoor activities
planned on both Friday and Saturday.

Axis of the upper level ridge is generally forecast to shift
eastward beginning Sunday, which should return low-level flow
out of the east and southeast. Bermuda high over the western
Atlantic will likely get going by this point as well, allowing
moisture to increase into early next week. Expect highs nearer
to normal (but still slightly above normal) in the low 90s with
daily chances of thunderstorms expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions Expected through the TAF Period....

Scattered cumulus with cloud bases between 4000 and 6000 feet
have developed over the terminals this afternoon. These are not
likely to result in any restrictions for the remainder of the
daytime hours and are likely to dissipate with the loss of
heating. High-level cloudiness is expected to move in from the
west tonight and could prevent the development of low clouds
and/or patchy fog towards daybreak. While the LAMP guidance is
not excited about the prospect of low clouds, have added SCT
decks of 1500 feet for OGB/AGS/DNL and 3000 feet for CAE/CUB as
a precaution since the HREF suggests the development of late
night stratus. Any low clouds that form should quickly
dissipate after sunset with scattered cumulus redeveloping by
the end of the current TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid-week before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$