Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
248 FXUS62 KCAE 181722 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 122 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will remain over the area today promoting mostly cloudy skies and a few showers or thunderstorms. High pressure will build into the area from New England over the weekend into early next week with dry and seasonable temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Expect scattered showers today and a few thunderstorms The upper level low over the NC/SC Piedmont will hang over the region today. Convection will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as the upper low and vort max shifts east and convection is enhanced by daytime heating. We would expect to see some thunderstorms in the afternoon with mean SREF muCAPE values around 500 to 750 J/kg with highest values along the coastal plain. The threat of severe weather is low given the weak instability. Cloud cover, showers, and below normal 500 mb heights support below normal daytime temps with highs in the low to mid 80s. Showers should diminish during the evening as the upper low shifts to our east and we lose daytime heating. Lows overnight in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered showers Thursday, drier Friday. - Seasonable temperatures. Upper low that`s been traversing across the region the past few days will finally be moving off to the east through the day Thursday. Associated trough axis will then move off the east coast Friday. Enough moisture and weak instability on the backside of the exiting low could produce isolated to scattered showers/storms by Thursday afternoon, primarily across the northeastern counties. As the low and trough axis move offshore, northwesterly winds aloft will help usher in drier air. Skies become partly cloudy, allowing a good amount of sunshine through the day. This will bring afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s both days. Overnight lows fall into the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): -Trending drier for the weekend into early next week with seasonable temperatures Really not too much change in the longer range forecast. Upper trough will be off the east coast, while some ridging builds into the area from the west through the weekend. This combines with surface ridge building southward from New England to keep dry weather in the majority of the longer term period. Next chance for any rainfall appears to be just outside of the current forecast period. Temperatures remain seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and lows mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms today which may briefly reduce VSBYs at the terminals. MVFR CIGS possible Thursday morning. An upper level system will linger over the region today promoting scattered -SHRA/-TSRA and low clouds. Convection is expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours, though confidence is low regarding impacts at the terminals. Winds generally SLY/SWLY this afternoon at 5-10 kts. Later this evening into tonight, there is potential for another round MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY restrictions at all terminals. Light winds overnight and decreasing cloud cover could also lead to the typical fog problems at AGS. Winds on Thursday generally becoming north to northeast behind the departing upper level system with skies clearing late in the day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air late this week should limit the threat of restrictions. As moisture begins to increase late this weekend and early next week we could see additional restrictions develop. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$