337
FXUS62 KCAE 161032
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
632 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will spread into the eastern Carolinas today with cool, NE
air flowing into the forecast area. Expect breezy winds and
well below normal temperatures. Moisture will remain high across
the area through mid week with scattered mainly diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms. Lower chance of rain late week
as drier air moves into the area. Temperatures cooler than
normal early in the week then expect a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain will spread into the region today with breezy winds

Light rain will continue to move into the Pee Dee as low
pressure develops offshore. As the low continues to deepen, a
plume of moisture will spread into the Carolinas. Models suggest
the strongest moisture advection, and higher rain amounts,
could be north and east of the forecast area. North and east of
I-26 rainfall totals should generally range from 1 to 2 inches
through tonight. However several SREF members and HREF PMM
values indicate some potential for amounts over 3 inches in
Chesterfield and Lancaster counties. This could lead to
localized heavy rainfall if convective bands develop and move
across these areas. There has been a trend to shift higher
rainfall amounts north of the area which limits confidence in
flooding potential. The threat of thunderstorms and severe
weather is low. Only 10% of SREF members show sbCAPE values over
250 J/kg.

The pressure gradient will strengthen during the morning hours
before the center of the low moves inland and weakens later
today or tonight. Expect gusty winds through midday or this
afternoon up to 35 mph in the Midlands. A Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued for portions of the Midlands through Monday night.
With cool NE flow and rain over the area, expect daytime
temperatures well below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
across the Midlands and around 80 in the CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Locally heavy rain possible in the Pee Dee Region Monday and
  Monday night
- Gusty north winds 20 to 30 mph Monday.


Tuesday and Tuesday night...Moisture could linger across the
region for Tuesday as the low pulls away from the forecast area.
A few showers will be possible but overall rain chances are
lower as the deepest moisture shifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Drier weather expected for mid-week
- Forecast uncertainty increases for late week

As a surface low moves north of the forecast area by mid-week,
relatively dry air is expected to wrap around the system and
move into the forecast area. However, GEFS appears to be more
moist than ECMWF/GEPS ensembles through the week. Uncertainty
with regards to temps/precip. Appears blocking pattern aloft
may set up with upper low remaining over the southeastern
States, leading to cooler temps and higher chance of rain each
day. Kept low pops through the period with mainly widely
scattered diurnally driven convection with overall weak forcing.
Temps near the NBM mean with warmest temps/above normal
Thursday, otherwise seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions deteriorate through the TAF period with MVFR
ceilings likely at all TAF sites, then IFR tonight at CAE, CUB
and OGB.

Expect breezy NE winds through much of the TAF period due to
developing low pressure offshore. Winds around 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots through the afternoon. Depending on the
track of the surface low, wind speeds should decrease after 06Z
Tuesday. Expect cigs to remain in the MVFR range through the day
today with IFR cigs expected to develop this evening as the low
moves inland. CAE, CUB and OGB could see vis restrictions in
rainfall through the day but there is some uncertainty on how
far south and west the rain progresses. Conditions may begin
improving around 12Z Tuesday but confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air will push into the region
this week lowering rain chances. However lingering moisture
leaves the door open for early morning restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ016-020>022-
     027>029-031-037-038-115-116-135>137.
GA...None.

&&

$$