Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
258 FXUS62 KCAE 140759 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 359 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure remains over the area again today. A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with gradually increasing moisture into early next week with high pressure off the mid Atlantic Coast. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and evening convection possible through the middle of next week. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s throughout much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper trough axis has moved east of the forecast area while an upper ridge is building to our west. At the surface, high pressure remains in control over the eastern seaboard. Expect the upper features to slowly drift eastward through the day and tonight, putting the forecast area into a northwest flow regime. The surface high remains in place through the forecast period. A combination of the surface high and northwest flow aloft will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 90s. Northwest flow keeps the area relatively dry, so the heat index values will be roughly the same as the air temperatures. That said, it`ll be important to take breaks and hydrate if spending time outside, especially this afternoon. A weak cold front over the Great Lakes begins moving south toward the region overnight, bringing some increased moisture ahead of it though the area is expected to remain rain free. As a result, lows overnight are forecast to be in the low 70s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weak frontal boundary will be crossing the forecast area Saturday with the upper level ridge building over the MS Valley. The main concern will remain temperatures and heat index values with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 90s for most of the area with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Continue to strongly encourage those that will be outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. Instability will be moderate to strong Saturday afternoon however with northeasterly winds pushing some drier air in at the surface and northwesterly low level winds providing some downsloping potential for convection will be confined to the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA where some Atlantic moisture may intrude. On Sunday the upper level ridge axis will be over the area with high pressure moving off the New England coast. This will begin strengthening easterly flow however with a weak pressure gradient keeping winds less than 10 mph moisture advection will be slow. Instability will again be moderate however with the lack of a trigger mechanism and weak winds aloft expect convection to be diurnal in nature with the highest chance in the southern Midlands and CSRA where the best moisture will reside. With increasing moisture and clouds afternoon high temperatures will range from around 90 along the NC border to the mid 90s in the CSRA. Heat index values from the central Midlands through the CSRA will again be in the mid 90s to around 100 so although a bit cooler those that will be outdoors are encouraged to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the upper level pattern from the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic remaining highly amplified pattern progression will be slow to occur. This will keep the upper level ridge over the eastern US through the long term. The surface high pressure will become centered off the New England coast which will slowly increase easterly to southeasterly flow across the area. The potential for convection Monday and Tuesday is too low to mention as mid level lapse rates will be weak and model soundings show a weak subsidence inversion over the region. The inversion weakens Wednesday and Thursday with chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms returning to the area. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal in the low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR expected through the TAF period. Clear skies are being noted over much of the region, but some low level clouds are developing near the coast. These clouds are expected to spread westward, but don`t anticipate them to reach our local terminals. There is a small chance the low clouds reach OGB, so have kept a SCT010 group to account for this possibility. Through daytime hours, expect fair weather cumulus to develop and dissipate after peak heating. Winds are expected to increase from the north from 5-8 kts during the daytime hours before become light to calm after 00z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$