285
FXUS62 KCAE 160649
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
249 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moving through the area stalls to the south of the
forecast area today. Thus, expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. High
pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal
temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast today and
tonight, allowing for continued warmth across the forecast area.
At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to meander through
the forecast area, which should keep highs a few degrees cooler
than Saturday. A surface high of the Mid-Atlantic coast will
allow for onshore flow over our neck of the woods, bringing more
moisture into the area. As a result, expect isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop and spread westward
through the day. Unlike yesterday, the chances for precipitation
cover the entire forecast area. With the ridge settling in
overhead, temperatures aloft are expected to be warmer than
yesterday. Model soundings also hint at a capping inversion,
which will likely limit the severe threat. However, inverted V
soundings suggest some gusty winds could accompany any
thunderstorms today.

Despite the cold front moving through today, temperatures are
expected to climb to the lower to mid 90s. Did go with a
forecast high on the higher end of the model solution spectrum
because of the ridge building overhead and guidance was a few
degrees too cool for many locations yesterday. If clouds are
more widespread earlier than anticipated, highs today could be a
bit cooler than forecast. Overnight lows remain near 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas Monday and
expands northward into the Mid Atlantic States and New England
on Tuesday. The H5 high pressure system position and the
subsidence underneath will shunt the deepest moisture to the
west of the region and result in mainly dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for mid June.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much above normal H5 heights are very likely to be centered over
New England and the Mid Atlantic States from the middle of next
week into next weekend. The orientation of these exceptionally
high H5 heights shifts from northeast to southwest to east to
west as the week progresses. This could allow an inverted upper
trough to move onshore around Thursday and enhance the sea
breeze front. A chance of convection should be possible,
especially near the sea breeze front.

The H5 high center should shift southward into the Carolinas by
next weekend which would decrease the chance of diurnal
convection and lead to a greater potential of excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR/MVFR conditions anticipated through the TAF
period.

Some mid level clouds are being noted over the southern portions
of the forecast area, but have generally cleared the terminals.
A thin layer of smoke has also been observed at CAE/CUB, but no
there have been no vis restrictions. With the rain on Saturday
at OGB, some MVFR fog has developed. MVFR fog is also possible
at AGS now that skies are clearing out there. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms could bring restrictions to the
terminals this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this point. Light and variable winds
become southeast between 5 and 10 kts after 16z-17z and
returning to light and variable after about 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$