Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
893 FXUS62 KCAE 140022 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 822 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday. A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with a slight increase in moisture. Mainly expect isolated afternoon convection to be possible through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures are expected throughout much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains in place to our north. Clear skies and overall dry conditions tonight, any fog should be limited to near bodies of water. The clear skies will also allow temperatures to be cooler than last night with forecast lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will still be mostly dry as high pressure will continue across the area. Weak stationary surface front well south does extend northward and off the SC/GA coast, with low pressure developing along it through the day. This low remains well offshore and will be tracking away from the region. Moisture across the area will remain limited, and a continued subsidence inversion should limit any kind of rain activity to areas much closer to the coast. Temperatures do reach into the middle 90s, and heat index values will be similar due to the dry air in place. Friday night will see a weak cold front moving towards the area from the north, but once again the airmass ahead of the front will be too dry for any rainfall to develop across our area. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s. For Saturday, the front moves in and through, but really wont see much impact for temperatures. Exception may be across the very northern Midlands and Pee Dee where highs in the lower 90s will be possible. Meanwhile elsewhere, guidance still generally giving mid to upper 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Continue to strongly encourage those that will be outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. The subsidence inversion will be weakening on Saturday however with dry air expected to remain in the mid levels with light northerly to northwesterly winds lending a bit of downsloping any potential for convection would be in the eastern Midlands, and very isolated at best. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the longer term period will see a strong upper ridge across the region. At the surface, the center of an area of high pressure off to our north will slowly be moving eastward off the New England coast. This will eventually turn low level winds more off the Atlantic, bringing an increase in moisture. Even with the slightly better moisture, only expecting isolated afternoon convection through the period due to the strength and position of the upper ridge. Temperatures through the long term will remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index readings slightly higher each afternoon. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR forecast. High pressure across the area. Cumulus should dissipate soon after 00z. Sky clear overnight with light and variable/near calm winds. The NBM and HRRR guidance suggests VFR through the night. There is a higher probability of stratus in the SC coastal Plain overnight and expect the bulk of these clouds/or patchy fog to remain to the southeast of OGB and AGS at this time. Scattered cumulus will develop mid to late morning with cloud bases rising to around 6000 Ft in the afternoon. Winds favor a north direction less than 10 knots by 18z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$