Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
756 FXUS62 KCAE 151614 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1214 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will move through the area tonight, then stall out off to the south of the forecast area on Sunday. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and evening convection through the weekend. High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This afternoon: A weak cold front will continue to slowly push into the Midlands and CSRA through this evening. Ahead of this front, a good amount of sunshine is expected, along with some of the hottest temperatures we have seen this year. Afternoon highs still on track to reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. As we continue to message for anyone outdoors, please be sure to take plenty of breaks and hydrate. Convective models are still indicating some potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms as moisture increases along the front later this afternoon. Satellite does show some cumulus developing along the front, but very little vertical development at this time. If any activity can develop, the best chance for any convection still appears to be over the southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA into this evening. Generally have kept mention of isolated activity through sunset. Tonight: Front will push south of the area tonight. Any shower or storm activity should be weakening by sunset and do expect most areas to become dry for the overnight hours. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A stalled frontal boundary should be along a line from the lower CSRA through the Southeastern Midlands on Sunday. This boundary combined with an onshore flow should be the focus for diurnal convection on Sunday. The chances of precipitation will be in the 20 to 30 percent range primarily near the boundary. It will remain slightly warmer than normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices should approach 100F in some areas. High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas Monday and expands northward into the Mid Atlantic States and New England on Tuesday. The H5 high pressure system position and the subsidence underneath will shunt the deepest moisture to the west of the region and result in mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for mid June. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much above normal H5 heights are very likely to be centered over New England and the Mid Atlantic States from the middle of next week into next weekend. The orientation of these exceptionally high H5 heights shifts from northeast to southwest to east to west as the week progresses. This could allow an inverted upper trough to move onshore around Thursday and enhance the sea breeze front. A chance of convection should be possible, especially near the sea breeze front. The H5 high center should shift southward into the Carolinas by next weekend which would decrease the chance of diurnal convection and lead to a greater potential of excessive heat. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR likely through the TAF period. A surface cold front is slowly tracking southward through the region. This will be tracking through cae/cub/ogb by 18z, then will continue southward towards ags/dnl by 20z. Winds variable south of the front, then tuning more north to northeasterly as the front passes by. Through the afternoon, scattered vfr cumulus field will develop as the front pushes southward. A Convective models do show isolated showers and/or thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening, mainly south of cae/cub, but closer to ogb/ags/dnl. Confidence remains low in regards to any activity impacting terminals this afternoon, so am keeping mention of it out of the TAFs for now. A return to mostly clear skies after sunset, continuing for much of the night. There may be limited low-level moisture near Sunday morning, but there should be enough mixing near the surface to help prevent any stratus. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$