387
FXUS61 KCAR 182213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday morning.
A cold front will cross the region Thursday afternoon. High
pressure will remain north of the region, with low pressure to
the south, Friday through Saturday. High pressure will then
build across the region Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6:13 PM Update...Forecast remains on track at this time.
Showers along the Saint John River have dissipated. Dry
conditions will prevail through tonight across the area. Made
minor adjustments to temperatures and winds to account for
latest trends.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will remain in control across the area tonight
into Thursday morning as the state remains between an upper
level trough moving east over the Canadian Maritimes and an area
of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast drifting north
towards southern New England. Low temperatures will be similar
to last night, generally in the 50s.

A weak cold front associated with the departing upper level
trough over the Canadian Maritimes will approach the area from
the north-northeast Thursday afternoon. Moisture pooling ahead
of the front will result in marginally saturated mid-levels
across Aroostook County and adjacent areas of northern Maine,
leading to development of isolated showers, mainly during the
mid to late afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will remain
well above normal but slightly cooler due to cooling aloft
ahead of the front, with highs generally ranging from the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A backdoor cold front crosses the region Thursday night, with high
pressure centered near Labrador starting to ridge south across the
region late in the wake of the cold front. An ocean low will remain
east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Will have a slight chance of
showers early Thursday night with the cold front. Otherwise,
expect partly/mostly cloudy skies Thursday night. The northern
edge of the precipitation shield with the ocean low could also
approach the Downeast coast later Thursday night with a slight
chance of showers. High pressure ridges south across the region
Friday, with the slow moving ocean low remaining offshore from
the Mid-Atlantic coast. Expect partly sunny skies across
northern areas Friday, with mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies
Downeast. A slight chance of showers could also persist along
the Downeast coast. The pattern persists Friday night. Generally
expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly
cloudy Downeast, Friday night. However, uncertainty regarding
the northern edge of the precipitation shield with the ocean low
still exists Friday night. Will keep a slight chance of showers
toward the Downeast coast Friday night due to the uncertainty.
However, the more suppressed model solutions keep the northern
edge of the precipitation shield south of the region. Ridging
persists Saturday while the ocean low slowly moves east. Could
still have a slight chance of showers toward the Downeast coast
early Saturday. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly sunny skies
north with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies Downeast. Expect
near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures
Friday. Expect near normal level temperatures Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered near Labrador remains ridged south
across the region Saturday night with mostly clear/partly cloudy
skies. High pressure builds across the region Sunday into
Tuesday with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. Could also have
patchy, mostly river valley, fog each night. However,
uncertainty does increase Tuesday into Wednesday regarding the
timing of showers in advance of an approaching warm front. High
pressure will begin to exit across the Maritimes Wednesday.
Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal,
levels Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominantly VFR through Thursday. BHB should drop
to IFR visibility late tonight into the early morning hours
(Medium to high/80 percent confidence). Low confidence (20
percent) in fog at BGR and HUL possibly leading to IFR
visibility around the same time. Light and variable winds,
shifting N Thursday.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of showers early
regionwide. A slight chance of showers along the Downeast coast
late. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/northeast.

Friday...VFR. Slight chance of showers along the Downeast
coast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. A slight chance of showers
along the Downeast coast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night through Monday...Variable conditions with any
overnight through early morning mostly river valley fog. Otherwise,
VFR. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night through
Sunday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
tonight and Thursday. Seas will range from 1 to 3 feet. Fog is
also likely tonight into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions possible Friday into
Saturday. A slight chance/chance of showers Thursday night into
Saturday.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/MStrauser
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/MStrauser/Norcross
Marine...Clark/MStrauser/Norcross