980
FXUS61 KCAR 241414
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the northwest on
Thursday, cross the area Thursday night, then continue south
of the area Friday. High pressure will build down from the
north on Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will remain centered near Labrador today, while
ridging south across the forecast area. Expect mostly/partly
sunny skies today. High temperatures will range from the lower
to mid 60s north to the mid to upper 60s Downeast. Have updated
to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon
temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
A mid level warm front is lifting NE into Western New England
today with increasing moisture advection. The warm front is
extremely slow tonight working into far western Maine along the
NH border. Clouds will increase as moisture advection works
thicker cloud cover into the area. Expect temperatures to fall
back into the mid to upper 40s but some cool spots in the low
40s are expected intially this evening with the radiational
cooling to start the night. Cannot rule out some patchy fog as
well tonight mainly in the river valleys and over lakes/ponds.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes on Wednesday. A strong
shortwave trough sliding over a steep ridge in the Plains will
approach from Hudson Bay Canada. As the low approaches, high
pressure to the east combined with the trough to our west will bring
moisture in upon southeasterly winds. This will bring increasing
clouds, and a chance for some showers moving into western areas late
in the day.

The low diving southeastward from Hudson bay will continue to
approach Wednesday night spreading rain into the area. Low pressure
systems that approach from the northwest often have little moisture
with them. However, this system has some very strong dynamics
including vigorous divergence aloft, and it looks like the high to
our east will be able to feed some significant moisture into the
system as it nears. The low will continue approaching on Thursday
and edge into the western part of our region Thursday afternoon.
Strong dynamics and diffluence aloft will continue to work with
moisture feeding in from the southeast to produce what should be a
moderately significant rainfall. Preliminary estimates on amounts
are a half to three quarters of an inch of rain across the area.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain should continue Thursday night as low pressure, both surface
and aloft, slides across and south of the area. Some rain may
continue into Friday morning as the low continues plunging
southeastward, south of Nova Scotia. Otherwise, Friday will remain
mostly cloudy north and cloudy to partly sunny south with a north
wind following the low.

High pressure supported by strong upper ridging building in from the
Upper Midwest will build down from the north Friday night into
Saturday. This will bring a partly to mostly sunny day Saturday with
seasonable highs in the mid 60s. High pressure and upper ridging
will continue to build over on Sunday bringing plenty of sunshine
with highs approaching 70. Dry and mild weather will likely continue
through early next week as upper ridges crosses the area.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today through early tonight. MVFR/IFR possible
late tonight, with variable conditions in any patchy fog.
East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast
today. Light and variable winds tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR to MVFR. Light SE wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR lowering to LIFR. S to SE wind.

Thursday...IFR to LIFR. S to SE wind.

Thursday night...IFR. SE wind becoming E.

Friday...MVFR becoming VFR late. NE wind.

Friday night...VFR. N wind.

Saturday...VFR. N wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight.

SHORT TERM: North winds may approach SCA Friday night into
Saturday as low pressure slides off the coast. Otherwise, wind
and seas should be below SCA into the coming weekend. Rain may
limit vsby Thursday into Thursday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer