Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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731 FXUS61 KCAR 102303 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 703 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across the north will slowly move away to the northeast today through Tuesday. A weak upper trough will remain over the area Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west. High pressure will build south of the area Thursday. A cold front will cross the region on Friday, followed by high pressure building in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 650 PM Update: Showers south of Baxter State Park will continue the next couple hours before diminishing with sunset this evening. No significant changes were needed. Previous Discussion: A broad area of low pressure continues to churn over the Canadian Maritimes, as it slowly tracks further east into the Gulf of St Lawrence. Behind the low, more stable air is beginning to work into the northern half of the forecast area, decreasing the threat for showers. Showers will continue to diminish from north to south through the early evening hours, with skies beginning to clear out overnight. Low temperatures will fall to around 50 across the region. For the day on Tuesday, an upper level trough will remain in the area, which in addition to lingering low to mid level moisture and diurnal heating, will lead to the development of convective showers across the forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate a skinny CAPE profile with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, so the risk for lightning is limited but non-zero. High temperatures will lift into the mid 70s over the forecast area on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday night into Wednesday the upper level trough will weaken and turn into more of a cutoff low over the state, with ridging further to the north. Lingering instability aloft will aid in the formation of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be slightly drier than the previous days, so not expecting too much accumulation. Thursday will provide a sort of a break from the showers, at least for southern portions of the forecast area. Overall though, we will still be under the influence of a longwave trough, and a weak shortwave moving across the northern part of Maine will keep at least the chance for some showers through that region. With light flow overhead starting Tuesday night, the chances of fog increase with all the recent rainfall. Over the waters, marine fog is likely and should be fairly widespread as warmer air begins to move in ahead of the next front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday night through Friday, a cold front will cross the state, bringing another chance for thunderstorms. The timing on this front is slightly variable between the deterministic runs, with GFS running a little behind the EC and Canadian. Therefore, blended PoPs to bring precip across the area a little bit earlier, and included a chance for thunderstorms ahead of the front through the Central Highlands and Interior Downeast. With a true front passing, colder air aloft will increase instability, but more importantly, we could see bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts across the front. Thus, there is the potential for these storms to be severe so Friday will be the day to watch. Details will come into better focus as the forecast moves into the range for the CAMS. Saturday and Sunday, weak ridging will move in, and with a cold pool aloft, surface temps will be a little cooler, making for a pleasant weekend. By Monday, temperatures will be on the rise as return flow around the high moves overhead. Deterministic models indicate the possibility of a shortwave bringing some showers for Monday afternoon, but confidence in this feature is low since the forecast is too far out for details. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern terminals...SCT to BKN MVFR cigs will remain through this evening, with brief periods of IFR possible in patchy fog. Conditions will improve to VFR into the day on Tues. Winds light and variable. -SHRA possible Tues afternoon. Downeast terminals...VFR conditions will continue tonight into Tues, with brief IFR vis possible through early Tues morning due to patchy dense fog. Winds light and variable. -SHRA possible Tues afternoon. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night-Thursday night...During the daytime, generally VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger showers in the afternoon. During the nighttime and early mornings, MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog. Better chance and more persistent IFR/fog along the coast. Winds less than 10 kts except during the day Thursday, when S/SW around 10 kts is expected. Friday...VFR early, decreasing to MVFR/IFR from N to S with showers and storms. Timing of the front is a little uncertain, with BGR/HUL/BHB more likely to see afternoon TS. S/SW wind 10-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS possible. Friday night and Saturday...MVFR/IFR gradually becoming VFR by Saturday morning behind the front. Gusty N winds 15 to 20 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas less than small craft advisory conditions will continue. Seas will approach around 4 ft on the outermost portion of the coastal waters, and winds may briefly surpass 20 kts across all waters in any rain showers. SHORT TERM: Winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 2 ft or less through Wednesday night. From Thursday into Friday, S winds gradually increase to around 25 kts on Friday, and seas gradually build to around 5 ft. Winds will subside below 25 kts Friday night and remain there on Saturday. Seas gradually subsiding to 3 feet by Saturday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Strauser Short Term...LF Long Term...LF Aviation...Strauser/LF Marine...Strauser/LF