678
FXUS61 KCAR 240350
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1150 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the northwest on
Thursday, cross the area Thursday night, then continue south of
the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:50PM Update...Minor tweaks to the temperature trends with
clouds from the washing out cold front in Quebec working into
Maine. These clouds will mess with the temperature trends over
the next few hours. Guidance continues to be strong signal that
clouds gradually clear heading for sunrise which suggests
decoupling and rapid raditional cooling after 3am. Will continue
with this thinking for now...No other changes.

Previous discussion...
Surface ridging will continue to keep dry conditions over the
area tonight. High res models show the approaching frontal
boundary from the west will fall apart with the dry conditions
in place. Mid and upper level RH models show some gradual
clearing tonight. In addition, diurnal cooling will cause temps
to fall into the low 40s. This with the calm winds and
increasing dewpoints will produce patchy fog, especially in
lower terrain and river valleys. For Tuesday, the surface
ridging remains in place with clouds continuing to decrease.
Partly sunny skies will help boost temps into the mid 60s with
the continuous ENE flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridge axis dominates the wx for one last day on Wednesday stretching
fm the Maritimes thru Downeast. Min temps for Tuesday night will
drop to near normal as skies begin to cloud up after midnight under
subsidence inversion. Looking at another round of valley fog as
airmass remains persistent for one last night.

590dm upper high center off of the Florida coast will slowly build
north and east with ridge axis extending into the eastern Canada on
Wednesday morning. Longwave trough over Hudson/s Bay will
extend down twd upper low over the MS River Valley and will
slowly move eastward during the day. Skies will become mostly
cloudy-cloudy in the afternoon with indications of a subtle vort
max drifting acrs the north twd the end of the day.

As shortwave digs into the northeast it will begin to deepen over
srn Quebec on Thursday morning. Sfc low will be in RRQ of upr level
jet streak and looks to bring rain into wrn areas after midnight
Wednesday night and becomes widespread acrs the entire region on
Thursday. Rain amounts over the region likely will depend on
movement of tropical system over the Gulf and it/s interaction with
upper low over lwr MS River Valley and the existing ridge axis as
this may muck up moisture transport into the northeast. Temps will
be low on Thursday due to cloudy skies and rain throughout the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Going into the extended forecast, showers are expected to
persist Thursday night into early Friday morning as a low
pressure system moves east through the region. Minimum
temperatures across the region should be in the low 50s, with
light variable winds blowing as the front passes.

Mid level and upper level ridging will develop and move
eastward into the Northeast corridor this weekend into early
next week, causing fair weather and clear skies. Winds are
expected to stay northerly and light. High relative humidity
values along with these light winds may cause some fog to
develop in the river valleys overnight into the mornings.
Overnight lows through the rest of the extended period will be
in the upper 40s. There will be a slight warming trend, with
high temperatures ranging from the mid-60s this weekend into the
low 70s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
625 pm update...Looks like VFR into Tuesday evening for all
terminals. Cannot rule out a few brief intervals of MVFR cigs,
but not confident enough to include in any TAFs.

NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for tonight and Tuesday. For
north terminals, possible MVFR in BCFG, which should clear later
on Tuesday morning. Light E winds around 5 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR though may see another
round of MVFR/IFR in patchy fog and low stratus late Tue night
into Wed morning. ESE 5-10kts.

Wednesday night...VFR, then lowering to MVFR in low stratus and rain
after midnight. SSE 5-10kts.

Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR/IFR in rain. S 5-10kts becoming N 5-
10kts Thu night.

Friday...Improving to VFR in the afternoon. N 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. N 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain low SCA conditions tonight
and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds remain below small craft levels through Friday but
may approach marginal levels late Friday night and Saturday morning
depending on track of low pressure. Seas likely to remain 2-3 feet
through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...LaFlash/Sinko/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Sinko/Buster