771
FXUS61 KCAR 020338
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1138 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through Tuesday, then exits across
the Maritimes through Wednesday. A warm front lifts to the north
Wednesday night followed by a cold front passing Thursday. Weak
high pressure passes to the north Thursday night through Friday.
a frontal system approaches Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:35 PM Update...The sky is clear and the forecast remains on
track. Only minor change was to adjust temps in some of the
western valleys where the air has already cooled to the low 50s
in some spots.

previous discussion
Scattered cumulus clouds will begin to dissipate into the
evening hours, with clear skies returning tonight under the
subsidence of the current ridge of high pressure. Winds will
become light tonight, and with persistent clear skies,
radiational cooling will allow for low temperatures to fall into
the lower 50s to possibly upper 40s in some of the colder
valleys of the north. Patchy fog is possible in river valleys
across the north late tonight into early Tuesday morning, but
will quickly dissipate as the sun begins to rise.

High pressure continues into the day on Tuesday, with mostly
clear skies allowing for temperatures to lift into the lower
80s across the forecast area. Winds will be fairly light out of
the north due to the center of the ridge being overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds over the area Tuesday night, then
exits to the east on Wednesday. Associated subsidence should
keep things dry. There should be with minimal cloud cover
Tuesday night, then a gradual increase in cloud cover on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be near normal and highs on
Wednesday around 5 degrees above normal.

A northern stream shortwave passes to the north Wednesday
night, depending on exactly how fast the aforementioned deep
layered ridge exits will determine how soon Wednesday night any
precipitation will arrive. 12z guidance is generally slower with
the timing of showers, so have basically delayed onset until
after midnight across most of the region. It does appear that
the best chance for showers will be across the North Woods and
that far SE portions of Downeast Maine should remain dry. Lows
Wednesday night should be around 5 degrees above normal.

A second northern stream shortwave crosses the area on Thursday.
With less moisture to work with than its predecessor, have lower
pops, mainly slight chance across the region. There is some
indication the region could end up dry, but do not have the
confidence to go with a dry forecast at this time. Highs on
Thursday should be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The region should be under a mean zonal flow Thursday night and
Friday. Other than possibly some lingering showers across far
northern portions of the area, it should be dry.

Northern stream ridging crosses the area Friday night. While a
minority of the guidance has it transit very quickly and allow
for showers to build in late Friday night, the vast majority do
not, so only have chance pops Friday night.

A weakening northern stream trough approaches Saturday, then
passes to the north Saturday night and Sunday. The result should
be scattered showers during this time range. A rumble of
thunder is also possible mainly in the afternoon/early evening
Saturday and Sunday.

Northern stream ridging crosses the area Sunday night, then
exits to the east Monday. Other than possibly some lingering
showers across the North early, Sunday night should be dry.
Depending on how quickly the ridging exits to the east on Monday
will determine of if showers can develop mainly across the
North in the afternoon.

Temperatures should be above normal Thursday night through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday. Winds will
be light N to NW tonight, possibly becoming nearly calm late.
Patchy fog development possible from KHUL north late tonight.
On Tuesday, N to NW winds around 5 kts will persist.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR, except low chance of MFVR in any
showers at NW terminals late Wednesday. S winds G15-20KT
possible Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible.

Thursday-Friday...Becoming VFR Thursday.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR
possible in any showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria
tonight through the day on Tuesday. A few gusts near or just
over 20 kts possible.

SHORT TERM: Other than some gusts to around 25 kt being possible
on Thursday, sub-SCA conditions are predicted on the waters from
Tuesday night through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD/MCB
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Maloit