531
FXUS61 KCAR 010238
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1038 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight into Monday
and crest south of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough
of low pressure will cross the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030pm Update:
A couple stray light showers are noted across the central areas,
with a couple thunderstorms across the outermost coastal waters
late this evening. The cold front continues to make it towards
the coast and is now approaching Bangor and Downeast Maine.
Stray showers remain possible over inland areas, with scattered
showers expected to continue through late this evening over the
outer coastal waters. Patchy fog has been observed along the
coast, but should dissipate later this evening with the arrival
of the cold front. Overall no significant changes were needed
with this update.

Previous Discussion:
Skies clear from north to south tonight with Monday starting out
mostly sunny over northern parts of the area, followed by the
entire area becoming sunny by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area through the first half
of the week, with clear skies Monday night into the day on
Tuesday and light winds. This pattern is also a favorable
pattern for prime radiational cooling, which will allow for
temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to potentially into the
40s across the north. For the Downeast region, temperatures may
fall just below average into the mid 50s.

The ridge of high pressure will gradually shift eastward Tuesday
night into Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift to out of the
southwest and warm air advection to return to the region. Cloud
cover will also begin to increase on Wednesday ahead of the next
low pressure system approaching from the west. Despite the
increasing clouds, temperatures will still warm, with highs into
the lower 80s across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front may begin to cross the area Wednesday night,
bringing the next round of rain showers through the area into
the day on Thursday. Current guidance suggests that as the
parent low begins to occlude, support of the cold front will
falter, and rain showers may become scattered as the front
weakens during its passage.

Another region of high pressure should follow the cold front on
Friday, allowing for the area to dry out. This high pressure may
not last long, as another low pressure system approaches for the
weekend, bringing the next chance for widespread rain. That
said, guidance remains inconsistent with when or where this low
pressure will track, though there seems to be more confidence in
the low tracking somewhere across Maine sometime this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Monday except at BHB where low clouds
and fog are expected to remain through approximately 6z. Winds
remain or shift north this evening, with gusts up to 20 kt
possible during the day Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Mon night - Tues night: VFR across all terminals under clear
skies, VFR clouds increasing late Tues. Winds light and
variable.

Wed: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S to SW at 5 to
10 kts.

Wed night - Thurs: VFR cigs continue, along with scattered rain
showers moving through early Thurs morning through the day on
Thurs. Winds S to SW at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts
possible.

Fri: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Advisory level seas continue over the outer waters
through late this evening. West winds late this evening shift
around to the north Monday morning. Seas drop below 4ft in the
morning and conditions remain below advisory levels from late
tonight through Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels
through the middle of the week. For Thursday into Friday,
southerly swell could increase seas towards 5 ft on the coastal
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/MStrauser
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/MStrauser/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/MStrauser/AStrauser