559
FXUS61 KCAR 162000
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
400 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide south of the region Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure will remain to our south on Wednesday. A
cold front will cross the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A 1025mb high pressure begins to settle south of Maine tonight
to near Georges Bank on the southern end of the Gulf of Maine as
the 592dam high at 500mb begins to build its ridge over the
United States East Coast. Global runs and Hi-Res Cams continue
to show a "ridge rider" MCS coming out of Ontario and into
Quebec tomorrow morning but significantly weakening. Warmer air
aloft will begin advecting northward and moisture increasing
aloft with a mid level warm front lifting northeast. High clouds
will increase tonight with temperatures falling back into the
upper 40s to low 50s areawide. Patchy river valley fog is
possible tonight especially across Northern Maine for a few
hours before sunrise which is 4:37AM EDT. There remains
uncertainty if any bit of the MCS makes it to Maine. If it
does... Thunderstorms aren`t expected given the stable airmass
but a few remaining showers possible into the Moosehead Region,
North Woods and Northern Maine by mid morning tomorrow. Tomorrow
as the ridge slowly builds east the airmass is slowly warming
aloft but the mid level warm front may kick off 1 or 2 showers
across the north otherwise a dry day. Southerly winds tomorrow
10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph possible and this keeps the
coast cool in the upper 50s at the shoreline, low to mid 60s
elsewhere on the Downeast coast. Inland expect upper 60s to low
70s from Bangor region northward to the St. John Valley
including the North Woods. In addition to the southerly winds it
will be partly sunny tomorrow with more clouds...then "The Heat
Is On" below...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will approach the area Monday night and lift
through the forecast area through the day on Tuesday. With such
a strong high pressure just southeast of the area, a strong
marine layer will prevent showers from developing early on near
the coast, while showers and storms may form along the surface
boundary as it travels further north into the afternoon. Though
CAPE values may begin to increase greatly with steepening mid
level lapse rates, a strong enough capping inversion and lack
of saturation will limit storm intensity.

Increasing stratocu Tuesday night behind the warm front will
prevent temperatures from cooling off much, and lows may only
fall into the lower 70s across the north to mid to upper 60s
Downeast. For the day on Wednesday, southwesterly warm air
advection combined with the influence of a strong high pressure
to the SE will lead to a rapid increase in temperatures in the
warm sector over the state. Mostly clear skies will allow for
increased solar radiation at the surface as we approach peak
solar angle for the year. Additionally, PWATs will approach 2
inches will result in a humid airmass overhead, and as high
temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s across the majority
of the forecast area, temperatures will feel like they are
approaching 100 to 105 degrees (the heat index).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unfortunately, there will not be much of a break on Wednesday
night, as though skies clear, PWATs will remain near all time
record highs around 2 inches, and this humid air mass will not
be quick to cool off. SW warm air advection will also continue
to funnel warmer air into the region, and lows will only fall
into the low to mid 70s through most of the forecast area
(aside from the coast, which will remain at least 10 degrees
cooler than inland through this event due to the SW winds
bringing cooler marine air overhead).

The warm night period will lead into another hot day on
Thursday, wit temperatures making a run for the mid to upper
90s once more. That said, the cold front associated with the low
lingering over the Hudson Bay will finally begin to push into
the forecast area, bringing the next round of showers and storms
to the area as well as cooling relief. The timing of this
feature remains uncertain at this time, with some guidance
bringing it through early Thursday morning and other guidance
suggesting later Thursday evening. Based on the strength of the
high over Nova Scotia this week, this current forecast is based
around a later FROPA timing as the boundary slows near the
blocking high pressure.

Since there will be multiple days with near record breaking
temperatures and low temperatures around what average HIGH
temperatures are this time of the year, the danger from this
heat will continue to build through the week and this is likely
to be the worst heat outbreak since 2020. Remember to drink
plenty of water, limit outdoor activities from late morning
through the early evening hours, stay in air conditioned spaces
if possible, and never leave children or pets unattended in
vehicles.

The heat will break Friday into the weekend, and although
conditions are not expected to be quite so oppressive, they
could still remain around 5 to 10 degrees above average highs
for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR SKC conditions this evening becoming FEW-SCT high
cigs tonight areawide. W-NW winds gusty will shift S-SW becoming
light and at times variable tonight. Tomorrow BKN VFR cigs
expected with S winds 10-15kt and gusts at times up to 20kt.

SHORT TERM:
Mon - Wed night: VFR across all terminals. Winds SW to W at 5 to
10 kts.

Thurs: VFR early, becoming MVFR from north to south through the
day in showers and thunderstorms. Winds WSW 5 to 10 kts,
becoming NW around 5 kts behind the showers and storms.

Fri: VFR. A chance for -SHRA but cigs remain VFR. Winds NW at 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through the near
term. SW winds tonight less than 15kt becoming S generally less
than 20kt tomorrow. A few gusts 20-25nm offshore may reach
20-23kt tomorrow at times. Seas 1-3ft tonight becoming 2-3ft
tomorrow. Sea surface temperatures from the Downeast Coast out
25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay are
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels through at least Friday. With warmer air
temperatures building in through mid week, there is a chance for
areas of dense fog building in mid to late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will soar under an anomalously high pressure
system this week, challenging record high temperatures and
record max minimum temperatures each day. Multiple days of
record breaking temperatures will lead to dangerous heat without
a chance for reprieve overnight.

June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (97)96 in 2020
Bangor (96)95 in 1995
Millinocket (98)95 in 2020
Houlton (97)95 in 2020
Frenchville (96)93 in 2020


June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (74)68 in 1970
Bangor (71)72 in 1931
Millinocket (72)69 in 1923
Houlton (71)67 in 1976
Frenchville (73) 65 in 2016

June 20th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)
Caribou (92)            93 in 2020
Bangor (97)             95 in 2020
Millinocket (95)        96 in 2020
Houlton (94)            94 in 2020
Frenchville (89)        88 in 2016

All-time Record Highs:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (97 June 19)96 in June 2020
Bangor (97 June 20)104 in August 1935
Millinocket(98 June 19) 101 in June 1907
Houlton (97 June 19)99 August 1975
Frenchville(96 June 19)94 in July 2018

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (74 June 20)71 in July 2018
Bangor (71 June 20)77 in August 1949
Millinocket(72 June 20)80 in July 1912
Houlton (72 June 20)72 in August 2009
Frenchville(73 June 20)71 in July 2018

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser
Climate...Sinko/AStrauser