563
FXUS61 KCAR 231042
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
642 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Northern Maritimes today through
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the northwest on
Thursday...cross the area Thursday night...then continue south of
the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:42AM Update...Low stratocu clouds have increased in coverage
across the Downeast and pushing west to Bangor. Webcams at the
Bangor Intl Airport show them rushing westward. There is a lot
of stratocu extending from the Penobscot/Piscataquis County
border pushing north through MLT into Baxter and Moosehead
Region north to the Allagash. At the same time mostly clear
skies extend from the far eastern St. John Valley to PQI and
HUL. Very difficult sky forecast this morning and with that see
aviation changes below...

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure is over the Northern Maritimes today with
500mb ridge axis over Maine. Light winds from the E-SE keep
moisture from the Maritimes in place over Maine. Modeled
soundings showing a mix of sun and clouds today across the area
with some stratocu. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid
60s areawide today. High pressure holds on tonight causing a
surface front to fall apart in Quebec with the 500mb ridge
holding on as well. 850-250mb RH values are decreasing and much
of the model guidance is in favor of gradual clearing through
the night. By daybreak it will likely be just some patchy cloud
cover and with winds going calm expect decoupling tonight. Opted
to bump temperatures cooler tonight than previously expected
with low to mid 40s north and mid to upper 40s from the Central
Highlands to the Downeast coast. Wouldn`t rule out a couple
37-39F readings in the North Woods west of Route 11. Also given
the cooler temperatures expecting some patchy river valley fog
and other areas prone to fog like over lakes and ponds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain nearby to the northeast over the Northern
Maritimes on Tuesday. This will bring a mostly sunny and seasonable
day with highs in the mid to upper 60s. The high to our northeast
will bring a light northeasterly wind which may back in some low
clouds or status from the Maritimes early in the morning. However,
subsidence should be strong enough to clear any fog and stratus out
by midday giving way to a mostly sunny day.

Tuesday night will likely begin mostly clear early. Clouds may begin
to increase late Tuesday night as some moisture backs in from the
east and low pressure approaches from the northwest.

High pressure will remain over the Northern Maritimes on Wednesday.
Our focus during midweek will turn to a trough of low pressure
diving southeastward from the Hudson Bay region of Canada, cascading
over a large ridge building in the Plains. Moisture ahead of this
trough will begin to spread into our region on Wednesday bringing
increasing clouds, and possibly some showers to western areas late
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday night will become cloudy as low pressure continues to
approach from the northwest. Some rain will become more likely,
especially across western parts of our area, as the low nears.

Low pressure will continue to slide southeastward toward our area on
Thursday. Low to mid level moisture feeding into our region from the
southeast combined with strong upper level divergence as deep low
pressure nears the western part of our region will bring the first
chance for significant rain we have had this month. Rain will be
likely Thursday, and will likely continue Thursday night as deep low
pressure, both surface and aloft, slides southeast across our area
and off the coast. The rain may continue over eastern areas on
Friday. Otherwise, Friday will remain mostly cloudy as low pressure
continues south of our region and onward south of Nova Scotia into
the Atlantic.

Upper level ridging behind this low will be building westward acoss
Southern Canada and the Great Lakes region late this week and will
ridge across our area over the weekend. This will bring a return of
partly to mostly sunny days with seasonable temperatures over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...Low cigs (MVFR) in BHB and working into BGR
from the E. VFR across northern terms with just some patchy
ground FG. FVE has SCT MVFR conditions. Complex cig fcst over
the next several hours with some sites at MVFR and others at
VFR.

Previous Discussion...
VFR/MVFR this morning becoming VFR. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Tonight,
VFR. BCFG/BR possible at terms but too much uncertainty to
place in TAFs. Winds trend calm.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR with light E winds. However, there
is a small risk low clouds/stratus backs in from the Maritimes late
night/early morning each day.

Wednesday night...VFR, lowering to MVFR in low stratus clouds moving
in late. Light SE wind.

Thursday...MVFR lower to IFR. Increasing SE winds. Rain likely.

Thursday night...IFR. Moderate E wind. Rain likely. Fog possible.

Friday...IFR improving to MVFR. NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds generally less than 20kt through tonight. Seas
2-5ft over western waters today from Hancock County coast out
25nm and points westward. Seas 1-3ft from the Washington County
coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line. Seas becoming
generally 1-3ft tonight across all the waters. Sea surface
temperatures are generally 54-57F from the Downeast coast out
25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas will remain below SCA through Wednesday night. Low
pressure approaching from the northwest on Thursday and sliding off
the coast Thursday night may bring a SCA late Thursday, and likely
bring a SCA and possibly a gale Thursday night into Friday. Vsby
will be good through Wednesday night, then may lower in rain late
Thursday into early Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Sinko/Bloomer