Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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667 FXUS62 KCHS 110541 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 141 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... At 130 AM, SPC mesoanalysis continued to indicate an axis of normalized CAPE across the marine zones and generally west along the Savannah River Basin. In addition, Sig Tor values across the outer GA/SC waters remained in excess of 3 units. Over the past hour, KCLX has detected a radar detected supercell, with occasional possible waterspout tracking to the east. This activity will gradually wind down through the rest of the night. Attention during the pre-dawn hours will turn to the potential for fog. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1" everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland. The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast. Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday, potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime. High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday. However, there should be enough instability in place each day to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper 90s inland. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6Z TAFs: KCHS/KSAV/KJZI received measurable rainfall since last evening. Given the wet ground and light winds, restrictive ceiling and visibility due to fog and stratus may develop across each terminal during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. Each TAF will feature a TEMPO between 8-12Z for some degree of fog and low clouds. During the daylight hours, winds should begin the day light from the north. However, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the afternoon, drifting over the terminals between 18-19Z. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds should turn from the SE and increase to around 10 kts. Winds are forecast to weaken after sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected; however, isolated convection could bring brief flight restrictions mainly in the afternoons. && .MARINE... Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some 4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of the waters through late week before shifting offshore. Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain below 15 kt. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...NED MARINE...ETM/JRL